Sunday July 18, 2004 - 14:12:09 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 19th July 2004Price 1.2240
Resistance: 1.2260 ... 1.2275 ... 1.2290 ... 1.2330
Support....: 1.2225 ... 1.2202 ... 1.2180 ... 1.2160
While holding below 1.2260-90 bearish to 1.2160-80 before higher
No test of the 1.2445 area on Friday and a direct loss which has reached below our tentative 1.2300-20 support and as such we have to put any bullish view on hold. We suspect an early dip to 1.2225 which if seen could allow a Buy opportunity for a correction back to 1.2460-75. However, overall on the day we look for the decline to reach 1.2160-80 and consider this as an excellent buying opportunity. From there, a move back above 1.2230-60 would confirm reversal. Any direct break back above 1.2290 would imply immediate gains towards 1.2370-1.2405 once again.
Loss of 1.2260-80 now sets this area as resistance and we feel that this will provide a Sell opportunity for a final drop to the original 1.2160-80 target. Any initial decline on open should see first support at 1.2225 which should allow a pullback. However, we recommend covering all short positions on an approach to 1.2160-80. Only a break below the January low at 1.2140 would imply continued losses down to 1.2010-45 at least.
Elliott Wave Comments
With Friday's decline moving below our anticipated support at 1.2260-80 we need to adjust our wave count to label the 1.2202 low as the end of Wave iii and the 1.2405 high as Wave iv. This leaves us with a cluster of targets for Wave v at 1.2160-80 which matches the 1.618 projection of Wave -a- in the same area. Thus we feel the coming days should see a reversal from this support.
Thus, from the 1.2160-80 area the logical requirement for a reversal is a rally back above the Wave iv peak at 1.2405 which should trigger stronger gains back to the intervening Wave -b- at 1.2675 and Wave (x) at 1.2703.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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