User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday June 23, 2006 - 20:43:01 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

FXCM - Counting Down to FOMC – Dollar Bulls Still in Control

DailyFX Fundamentals 06-23-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

- Counting Down to FOMC – Dollar Bulls Still in Control
- Record High in Belgian Sentiment Index Signals Possible Strength in German IFO
- Busy Week Ahead for Japan

US Dollar

As we head closer and closer to the Federal Reserve’s end of June monetary policy meeting, the US dollar has continued to gain strength. The clear monetary policy divergence between the US and many other countries around the world such as the UK and Japan has benefited the US dollar significantly. However whether this benefit can be sustained will be contingent upon the tone that the Fed sets for the weeks ahead. Many traders believe that 5.25 percent rates, which includes the upcoming hike will be the highest that the Fed will go, but there are also a small number of analysts calling for 6 percent rates, suggesting that the Fed could continue their tightening cycle until October. If they are still tightening in September, this would already overshoot the expectations of most traders, which means that position adjustments could push the dollar even higher. As of Friday, the market has fully priced in a quarter point rate hike. The forecast for another dose of tightening in August is now also above 50 percent. Therefore quite a bit of volatility could stem from the FOMC statement due for release on Thursday regardless of whether the central bank alters its tone. Typically we get some quiet market activity prior to the FOMC meeting, but this time, things could different. We start the week off with the new home sales report followed by consumer confidence on Tuesday. Both pieces of data will shed more light on how much damage the previous rate hikes have done to the economy and help traders position themselves for the rate decision. Weak housing and consumer confidence numbers could mean that the economy as a whole may not be strong enough to handle another 50 to 100bp of tightening while stronger numbers may give the Fed’s hawkish stance more validity. The only piece of US data released today were durable goods orders for the month of May. The headline number was weak with total orders falling by 0.3 percent, but the components were not as pessimistic as orders excluding transportation rebounded by 0.7 percent.


Broad dollar strength pushed the Euro lower despite some rather good news. The Belgian survey of manufacturing confidence soared to a record high of 10.6 from 1.4. Although the index represents sentiment in a very tiny country, it tends to be correlated with the German IFO survey and such a big jump in general is one worth noting. This suggests that next week’s IFO report may not be as bad as analysts are expecting. Of course, the Belgian index is far more volatile than the German index, but today’s number is certainly encouraging. Meanwhile, European Central Bank council member Weber reiterated that vigilance was needed when dealing with inflation risks. He is one of the most hawkish members of the central bank and the only one to use the word “vigilance” since the last monetary policy meeting. Therefore even though this is a key word in central bank speak to relay a bias towards raising interest rates, his view holds less significance than if it would have come from ECB President Trichet or another more dovish member of the central bank. It is no question that the central bank still plans on raising interest rates later this year, but most members have been quiet as they review incoming data. The next rate hike where interest rates will probably be changed is not until August, therefore the ECB probably feels no need to prematurely change the sentiment in the market. In all likelihood, they are probably quite pleased with the level of the Euro at the moment. The prior rally above 1.29 posed a risk of hurting growth so the ECB picked the simplest way to talk down the Euro. Now that it is at more comfortable levels, they probably want to enjoy it for as long as possible.

British Pound

The British pound extended yesterday’s massive losses as fundamentals and technicals both called for further weakness. There was no significant data released today so the market continued to sell the pound on speculation that the Bank of England will be delaying any potential interest rate hikes following the death of monetary policy committee member Walton. In the meantime, they will probably be focusing on looking for replacements for the two open posts on the committee. There are a handful of UK data worth watching in the week ahead. This includes housing market figures and GDP on Friday. None of the data should shift the BoE’s stance by much which means that the value of the British pound will probably be driven by the US dollar component of the pair.

Japanese Yen

After weakening significantly yesterday, the Japanese Yen rallied against most of the majors except for the US dollar. Comments from Yu Yongding, a Chinese central bank advisor helped to rally the Yen. He said that China could accelerate its Yuan appreciation and tighten monetary policy due to the rapid growth in foreign investment. As we get closer to the 2008 Olympics, further Yuan appreciation becomes more likely. However controversy surrounding Fukui resignation is capping any gains in the Yen. Even though the government continues to stand behind Fukui and most recently, he reiterated his plans to complete his term as BoJ Governor, two public opinion polls indicate that nearly half of the voters polled were calling for Fukui to step down. If so, this would be a huge loss for the Japanese government as well as the negative for the Japanese Yen since he was one of the biggest advocators of removing the country’s zero interest policy sooner rather than later. In the week ahead, politics could continue to dominate the headlines as North Korea remains a risk, but economics will also be important given the long list of economic releases. We are expecting retail sales, industrial production, the trade balance, small business confidence, household spending, unemployment, CPI and housing starts.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105