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Monday June 26, 2006 - 09:03:50 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
EURUSD drop stopped at key support
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar hype continued on Friday. Cable after its low close on Thursday was sold off and weakened another 2-cents to bottom at 1.8140. EURUSD also came under pressure and went for a test of its key-level at 1.2470, we like to pint out that the Dollar did not manage to close the week beyond the â€˜cross-overâ€™ point of EURUSD vs. USDCHF which lies at 1.2503 this morning. US Durable Goods Orders were not the reason for the strong US Dollarâ€™s performance. May yielded a 0.3% drop after Durables had fallen a whopping 4.7% in April, low commercial aircraft orders the main reason for the continued weakness. The upcoming FED rate hike this Thursday may be responsible, as some forecasts seem to point to a 50bp rate increase instead of the expected 25bp hike. We will be going with the usual small step, but the recent hawkish FED comments lead us to think that prospects for an additional 25bp rate hike as early as the 8th of August are good. Speculation about BOJ Governor Fukui possible resignation and its impact on a likely rate hike in the coming weeks spurred speculation. While analysts continue to forecast a rate hike sooner rather then later, Forex markets are showing a different picture as USDJPY climbed to a new 2-month high of 116.60 on Friday.
Todays Key Issues:
Euroland April Current Account this morning revealed a â‚¬8Bln deficit, mostly due to direct and portfolio investment outflows. The 12-month cumulative Current Account shows a deficit of some â‚¬32.4Bln, this is just 0.4% of GDP and compares to a â‚¬32.6Bln surplus a year earlier. US May New Home Sales are due at 4pmGMT, they are expected to drop slightly to 1.15m units from 1.2m in April.
The Risk Today:
4-H EURUSD: Fridays drop stopped ahead of the pairs key-support at 1.2470, with the medium-term trend-line so near we are looking to enter a medium-term long position in EURUSD, targeting a return to the 1.2700-level and eventually a full rise back to 1.29. For today, initial resistance 1.2585, short-term trend-line at 1.2620. Initial support 1.2550, stronger 1.2520 and key 1.2470.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2680 S ||1.8415 T ||117.40 M ||1.2530 S |
|1.2620 T ||1.8350 K ||117.10 S ||1.2500 S |
|1.2585 M ||1.8285 M ||116.60 K ||1.2470 K |
|1.2575 ||1.8240 ||116.20 ||1.2425 |
|1.2550 M ||1.8225 M ||116.10 M ||1.2385 M |
|1.2505 S ||1.8170 S ||115.20 S ||1.2335 T |
|1.2470 K ||1.8135 K ||114.65 K ||1.2300 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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