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Monday June 26, 2006 - 09:23:32 GMT
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Forex Market Update

Published: Jun. 26 2006, 05:54 GMT

Market Awaits today's US data!

Asian markets have stayed range bound look for some significant volatility as the market search for indications from US economy. Watch for today’s New Homes Sales as the markets first indicator.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• German State CPI – Over all early indications point to a modest acceleration in inflation in June.
• Durable Goods Orders (May) -0.3% exp. 0.4% - slightly lower then expected.
• Japan’s Corporate Service Price (May) YoY -0.2% vs. -0.1% expected.
• Yosago said BOJ"s zero rates policy is "unusual" and "should be abandoned some day." The shift will not come "two or three years from now".
• Anatole Kaletsky writes in Times and believes that Fed statement will be more hawkish than expected, strongly suggesting that another rate hike is likely and encouraging the markets to speculate about even higher rates beyond August. Hawkish statement would be good news for the world economy and could prove surprisingly bullish for financial mkts in the long-term, even if it causes an initial shock.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
• SZ SNB’S Hildebrands Holds Speech in Montreux.
• 6:00 EC ECB Euro-Zone Current Account (Apr) -3.5b exp.
• German Consumer Price Index (Jun) MoM 0.1% exp.
• 12:00 US New Homes Sales (May) MoM prior 4.9% / YoY 1150k exp.

All eyes on US economic Data and Thursdays FOMC rate decision and subsequent comments.
Last weeks greenback rally renewed our conviction that this week Monetary Policy and economic releases will have significant effect on the markets direction. In these market conditions USD Bulls need two things for continued buying, first additional tightening and second a growing US economy. This environment will allow the USD will continue attracting investment and strengthen the USD.

Generally before an important rate decision (and mark our words this one is critical) markets stay usually calm as we have already seen in early Asian trading. However this weeks trading pattern might prove to be unique with high volatility before Thursday. This will due primarily to the US release calendar which contains significant clues into the health of the US economy. Today’s New Home Sales and Tuesday Existing Homes Sales should proved clues to the extent of a US economic slowdown. The housing market has played a critical role in the US economy and these numbers will provide investors will insight into how much damage the previous 16 hikes have done. Weak housing releases combined with a declining consumer confidence (Tuesday) confirm that the US economy is not resilient enough for additional hikes, and will prompt USD selling. However better or neutral number will give the FED the ability to tighten while continuing to attract much need investment.

EUR
We see very little incentive for the ECB to hike until August the earliest. While growth continues to move at a nice pace and inflation slightly above its target, Trichet and the gangs ability to talk the EUR down from 1.29 heights provided perhaps greater benefits than a 25bp hike. There are a few scheduled ECB speakers this week including Trichet on Thursday but expecting nothing more then the usual “vigilant” rhetoric. Movement of the EUR will be defined by USD action.

AUD
Last Friday saw AUDUSD a tight range moving less then 50pips. With all the positive information already priced into the market and a light calendar this week we see an opportunity for AUD reversal and continued selling. In addition as pressure mounts against the ZAR, traders will be hunting for similar opportunities in which the NZD and AUD might prove easy targets.

JPY
JPY could become the week’s big losers against the USD. In short, with a lack of clarity from the BoJ regarding Monetary Policy and shaky leadership, combined with the increasing cost of holding USDJPY shorts due to this weeks FED hike, traders will be looking unwind positions and perhaps renew carry trades. Recent hawkish rhetoric regarding ZIRP which helped support the Yen has already been filtered into the market and additional comments should have a muted effect.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.


Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2514 @ 05:54 GMT)
25-06-2006 Weekly Update: EURUSD broke the sideways consolidation zone last week with the break of 1.2537 38% retracement (from 1.1825-1.2979) supported by weekly stochastic pointing lower. But the pair remains in the bull wave from February with support now at 1.2415 and again at 1.2400 50% retracement which we favor to remain intact in the upcoming trading week. For the renewed upside acceleration a break of 1.2695 would give scope for a test of 1.2980 the inverse head and shoulders target.

Monday: EURUSD trading sideways in Asia with very little action. Look for the pair top out before US data around the 1.2760-70 area. For the downside look to sell the break of Friday's low 1.2475 for a test of 1.2400.

Resist.
1.2744
1.2634
1.2569
1.2514
1.2458
1.2413
1.2303
Support

Quoted:
26 Jun 06
05:54 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8189 @ 05:54 GMT)
25-06-2006 Weekly Update: GBPUSD resumed the downtrend this week with the break of 1.8340 38% (from 1.7229-1.9023), but remained well bid below 1.8126 50% from the current bull wave from February. For now the longer upside trend remains intact above 1.7915, but need to see 1.8530 resistance broken to confirm a continuation of the bull wave which would target the old high from May at 1.9023.

Monday: GBPUSD remains above 1.8130 50% from the Feb. bull wave Look for the pair to trade for a test of the 1.8240-60 area before US data. for the downside a break below 1.8130 support would give scope for 1.7915.

Resist.
1.8578
1.8391
1.8280
1.8189
1.8093
1.8017
1.7830
Support

Quoted:
26 Jun 06
05:54 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (116.37 @ 05:54 GMT)
25-06-2006 Weekly Update: USDJPY took out major resistance last week at 115.75 supported by daily stochastic pointing higher. The pair still remains in a longer term bear channel from 1998 which capped the upside in 2005 presently at 119.80 which technically looks to cap any further medium term corrective rally. Key resistance this week is the G7 gap from April at 116.50-70 a close below this week would challenge 119.00 short term. For the downside key support is now at 114.35 with a break here giving scope for the longer term bear trend to resume.

Monday: USDJPY unable to trade through the 116.70 gap in a very quiet Asian session. Look to play a range bound USDJPY in the 115.75-116.70 range ahead of US data with a neutral stand. Look for breaks of either support/resistance to give direction through the NY and following Asian session.

Resist.
117.96
117.13
116.82
116.37
115.99
115.47
114.64
Support

Quoted:
26 Jun 06
05:54 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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