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Forex Market Update

Published: Jun. 27 2006, 05:52 GMT

EUR gains strength on ECB rhetoric and diversification fears. Market eyes FOMC.

Remarks from ECB members, Gulf States USD diversification strategy and a US New Housing figure that failed to impress the market added significant volatility without overall direction.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• The German CPI edged higher to 2.0% yr in June. EU harmonized basis, inflation was steady at 2.1% yr.
• US New Homes Sales (May) MoM 4.6% vs. prior 4.9% / YoY 1234K vs. 1150k exp. A significant increase.
• Turkey’s central bank said it had sold $500m against the Turkish lira in an auction at an average of TL1.6870 as part of its effort to stop the sliding currency.
• Oman and United Arab Emirates stated they were selling USD either as a diverisication strategy or speculation.
• ECB's Trichet, in an interview with four newspapers, says ECB won't tie itself down in advance over timing of rate hikes.
• The PBOC is suggesting that the world should gradually become less dependent on the USD for trade and reserves. This sounds like they are talking others to share their thinking, implying an interest on their part to diversify their reserves.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
• 8:00 GMT German IFO – Business Climate (Jun) exp. 105.0.
• 8:00 GMT German IFO- Current Assessment (Jun) exp. 107.5.
• 8:00 GMT German IFO – Expectations (Jun) exp 102.9.
• 12:00 GMT US Existing Home Sales (May) exp 6.62m.
• 12:00 GMT US Existing Homes Sales (May) MoM prior -2.0%.
• 12:00 GMT US Consumer Confidence (Jun) exp 104.0.

EURO
Pressure from higher then expected German CPI figures and warnings from the International Banks of Settlements (BIS) put the ECB on the offensive. A well orchestrated round of pro-interest rate hike comments from ECB members Mersch, Quaden and Wellink, helped the Euro trade to fresh highs against the Yen 146.40 and USD 1.2600. Moving beyond the usual “vigilant” comments Guys Quaden was quoted by the Financial Times that it was possible for the ECB to raise earlier then August 3rd. Shortly after Yves Mersch in an ultra hawkish remarked not only was an early rate hike possible but could include a 50bp increase instead of the expected 25bp.

We expect the ECB to continue to provide the markets with sound bites as the German IFO business climate surveys is expected to decline for the second month in June. While the market is looking for direction from Thursdays FOMC, traders will be more then willing to give support to the EUR on verbal jarring.

US
Yesterday’s stronger then expected New Housing figure provided little market impact, signaling that today’s numbers, unless a significant deviation from expectations, will have only a minor effect. Existing Homes sales should come in around estimates, illustrating the housing market is slowly losing momentum as the FED’s 16 consecutive hikes begin to take effect. Consumer confidence, which is used to forecast household economic activity for the next six months, is expected to rebound after a collapse in May. This reading lacks the usual kick since employment is close to record highs and oil prices have stabilized giving average Americans a false sense of economic well being. Ahead of Thursdays FOMC and subsequent comments these indicators will have little effect on the overall direction the USD. However, should either of these indicators show signs of slowing growth, look for significant USD selling.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2598 @ 05:52 GMT)
25-06-2006 Weekly Update: EURUSD broke the sideways consolidation zone last week with the break of 1.2537 38% retracement (from 1.1825-1.2979) supported by weekly stochastic pointing lower. But the pair remains in the bull wave from February with support now at 1.2415 and again at 1.2400 50% retracement which we favor to remain intact in the upcoming trading week. For the renewed upside acceleration a break of 1.2695 would give scope for a test of 1.2980 the inverse head and shoulders target.

Tuesday: EURUSD showing very little movement despite US housing data yesterday, seems as if the market is awaiting the FOMC statement Thursday. We still look to trade the bullish bias up to the 1.2695 breakout level as long as 1.2475 support remain intact. Trade a stop reversal if this level is taken out.

Resist.
1.2766
1.2664
1.2622
1.2598
1.2520
1.2460
1.2358
Support

Quoted:
27 Jun 06
05:52 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8245 @ 05:52 GMT)
25-06-2006 Weekly Update: GBPUSD resumed the downtrend this week with the break of 1.8340 38% (from 1.7229-1.9023), but remained well bid below 1.8126 50% from the current bull wave from February. For now the longer upside trend remains intact above 1.7915, but need to see 1.8530 resistance broken to confirm a continuation of the bull wave which would target the old high from May at 1.9023.

Tuesday: GBPUSD remains above 1.8130 50% from the February and we look for the short term bullish bias to continue with a break of 1.8260 which would challenge 1.8300-20 resistance in the upcoming trading day.

Resist.
1.8383
1.8299
1.8267
1.8245
1.8183
1.8130
1.8045
Support

Quoted:
27 Jun 06
05:52 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (116.15 @ 05:52 GMT)
25-06-2006 Weekly Update: USDJPY took out major resistance last week at 115.75 supported by daily stochastic pointing higher. The pair still remains in a longer term bear channel from 1998 which capped the upside in 2005 presently at 119.80 which technically looks to cap any further medium term corrective rally. Key resistance this week is the G7 gap from April at 116.50-70 a close below this week would challenge 119.00 short term. For the downside key support is now at 114.35 with a break here giving scope for the longer term bear trend to resume.

Tuesday: USDJPY quiet yesterday, but remains short term bearish the break below the 116.00 in Asia gives scope for a 115.35 target. For the 116.55-70 should cap any upside move for now.

Resist.
117.24
116.77
116.52
116.15
116.05
115.84
115.37
Support

Quoted:
27 Jun 06
05:52 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

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