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Wednesday June 28, 2006 - 10:53:01 GMT
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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Markets still waiting for FOMC – Fukui holding on.
• NZD falls below major support.
• Turkey raises rates but signals no USD auction.

Market Outlook

The long wait for the FOMC meeting continues and most market participants are unwilling to do much until the outcome is known to see whether there is any clarity over Fed sentiments about inflation and the outlook for US rates. However, such clarity may be difficult to come by, given that the Fed, like the market, is essentially waiting for evidence on inflation and economic activity to unfold. The core PCE price index follows on Friday. In the run-up to these events there is some residual downside risk on EUR-USD – supports are at 1.2480 and 1.2530. However, as noted yesterday, if the events can pass without major incident there should be some EURUSD strength going into next week as the market focuses on possible rate hike risk at Thursday’s ECB meeting. The ECB’s Mersch speaks today and more hawkish noises seem likely.

The Japanese authorities are continuing to make efforts to draw a line under the Fukui affair, with Koizumi reiterating his support for him overnight, but until there is evidence of a recovery in popular support his position is at risk. For the time being USDJPY seems to have settled in a 115.80-116.70 range.

The NZD broke lower overnight following the release of some disappointing trade data. In fairness, the data was not that bad, with a May deficit of NZ$103.5m only slightly higher than the NZ$75m deficit in May last year (the data is unadjusted). However, the reaction speaks volumes for sentiment and dynamics in this market and this itself is cause for concern. The previous low at 0.5993 from March 29 has given way and until this and something like 0.6030 can be won back there is downside risk. 0.5875-0.5925 is the next support area, although major support does not really appear until 0.5640.

The Turkish authorities raised rates by a further 200bp this morning (main overnight lending rate to 22.25% from 20.25%), although they also said they would not be holding any USD selling auction today. This caused confusion in the market and initially saw a reversal of the USD-TRY weakness that immediately followed the rate hike announcement. However, they went on to drain TRY1bln from the money market and eventually USD-TRY moved to new intra-day lows and now looks set to test 1.60.

The UK CBI trades survey for June did not reveal anything new. The market was always going to have a lack of confidence in interpreting the data given the possible distortions from pre- World Cup spending and in the event the balance of +9 was the same as in May. For now, most will reserve judgement about how sales develop once World Cup effects fade away, but there will be a basic suspicion of some weakening in the numbers.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

EU ECB’s Mersch speaks on policy 10.00
JP Ind prod (May, prel) m/m 19.50 -0.2%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jun 25) -10 -12 last
NZ Trade balance (May) -NZ103.5m NZ$50m
JP Retail sales (May) y/y +0.1% -0.6%
DE Consumer confidence (Jul) 7.8 6.8 last
CH KOF indicator (Jun) +2.50 +2.40
ZA CPI (May) y/y +3.9% +3.9%
ZA CPIX (May) y/y +4.1% +4.1%
GB CBI retail trades survey (Jun) +9 +9 last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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