Thursday June 29, 2006 - 07:33:12 GMT
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Daily Technical: Risk of high intra-day volatility
by Marc Spaelti
EURUSD: The Euro continued to weaken slowly, unable to break the short-term trend-line which presently stands at 1.2560. On the other side we have key medium-term levels to beat, 4-month trend-line at 1.2485, it is the big hurdle this week and while above we keep a bullish Euro bias. A break on top will see it rise to 1.2620 or 1.2670 strong resistance, key level still 1.2700, a daily close above is bullish for a move to 1.29 next. In case the bottom breaks, EURUSD may fall as low as 1.2360 in the short-term and if it closes the day low, we may have to re-think the long-term strategy.
GBPUSD: It was the bottom that gave way yesterday and Cable re-tested strong support at 1.8135/40. Itâ€™s a double-bottom for now, a third test will lead lower to lower prices, 1.8065 is the key support and next level to shoot for on the downside will be 1.7930. Short-term bearish resistance 1.8185 this morning, a break early on today keeps the prospects for a correction alive, 1.8230 next minor resistance and space to rise 100 points to key resistance 1.8330/50 later on. A higher daily close confirms the end of the 1-month bearish move.
USDJPY: Fairly calm in the last 24h has seen the pair hold ranges at high levels, 116.65 initial resistance, 117.30 key, a higher daily close leads to 118. Bullish trend-line at 116.05 this morning, unchanged view that ending the rise to correct is favorite, but wonâ€™t get too aggressive here, it may be early enough to sell on a stops basis once 115.90 is breeched, first target of a dip is 114.65 key support, a lower daily/weekly close will lead to 110-ish.
USDCHF: Range of 1.2955/95, key resistance at 1.2500 is doing a fine job so far. Intra-day this resistance may get breeched, allow for spikes up to 1.2530, any higher will keep the Dollar bid for a while longer. For now we are biased to hold a short Dollar position, initial support at 1.2435 broken should see it dip to 1.2385, closing the day underneath of that is bearish for a test of the 1.2260 key on Friday.
@07.55GMT DE Unemployment Report June
@08.30GMT UK Net Consumer Credit May
@12.30GMT US final GDP Q1
@18.15GMT FOMC RATE ANNOUNCEMENT
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