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Thursday June 29, 2006 - 09:59:55 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
FOMC rate announcement out today
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar continues to hold at high levels as currency markets lie in wait of the FOMC rate announcement at the end of the day. EURUSD has held its short-term bearish trend over the past 24h and is approaching its key support at 1.2470 which may come under attack later on today. We also continue to watch the EURUSD vs. USDCHF cross-over point at 1.2506 today. GBPUSD yesterday fell to 1.8135 to form a double-bottom, there is large risk to fall further on a third try. The US FED has started its 2-day rate meeting yesterday, its announcement is due tonight at 6.15pmGMT. It is widely expected that a quarter-percent rate hike to 5.25% will be announced, some continue to speculate on a larger 50bp move. We doubt the later will be the case, but the accompanying statement is likely to suggest that more needs to be done. The row on Fukuiâ€™s future continues, with LDP panel chief Yamato saying that the earlier the resignation the better. ECBâ€™s Mersch said European growth figures indicate that economic recovery is gaining momentum despite the recent rate hikes. He added that the ECB will continue to closely watch incoming data in order to react quickly to any changes.
Todays Key Issues:
The German Unemployment-report this morning was better than expected with the number of unemployed dropping 49k and the unemployment rate at 10.9% in June (11% May), the EURUSD did not react at all. Finalized 1st Quarter US GDP is due at 12.30GMT. Its preliminary reading indicated growth of 5.3%, analysts forecast a slight improvement to 5.5%. Weekly Jobless Claims are to stabilize around 310k, the 4w average is expected to fall to 305, its best level in more than 2 months. FOMC rate announcement at 6.15pm GMT, US interest rate due to be hiked from 5% to 5.25%.
The Risk Today:
The Dollar is still near medium-term chart levels. EURUSD and USDCHF 1.2505, USDJPY 116.70, Cable 1.8135 need to continue to hold, in order for us to keep a medium-term view, that currencies will strengthen over coming days. Should these levels be breeched, there is risk for the Dollar to advance nearly 2% across the board.
4-H EURUSD: So far this week the resistance-line has dictated the market movements and volatility has dropped. Current view is for the longer-term (orange) trend-line to hold, after a quick rise to 1.27, prospects would be to see a medium-term move towards 1.29/1.30. There are risks to go the other way of course, breaking medium-term support and closing the week low, can send EURUSD to 1.2250 instead.
4-H USDCHF: Shows a more bullish Dollar picture with the bullish trend completing its 2nd month. Key resistance here is the 1.2505 level â€“ cross-over point with EURUSD. For today, trend support at 1.2385, a break will lead to key support 1.2260, but while this holds the Dollar can continue rising towards 1.2750.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2685 K ||1.8350 K ||118.00 K ||1.2530 S |
|1.2630 M ||1.8230 M ||117.35 K ||1.2505 K |
|1.2555 T ||1.8185 T ||116.65 S ||1.2485 S |
|1.2540 ||1.8150 ||116.45 ||1.2465 |
|1.2530 S ||1.8135 S ||115.85 S ||1.2435 M |
|1.2505 K ||1.8065 S ||115.30 M ||1.2385 T |
|1.2485 T ||1.7985 K ||114.65 K ||1.2260 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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