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Thursday June 29, 2006 - 10:38:49 GMT
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Forex Market Update

Published: Jun. 29 2006, 05:47 GMT

Busy day as economic indicators and FOMC will drive volatility.

The market has been very quiet since Asian opening Monday as the investors are looking rate direction in the US which would likely send the trend across most products through the summer.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• JN Industrial Production May) MoM -1.0% vs. -0.1% exp. , YoY 4.2% vs. 5.0% exp.
• JN Small Business Confidence (Jun) 50.1 vs. 49.8 exp.
• AU Jobs Vacancies (May) 7.3% vs. 2.0% exp.
• NZ Money Supply M3 (May) YoY 10.9 prior 10.3%.
• Japan: LDP's Yamamoto says BOJ's Fuiku should step down, the "earlier the better".
• NZDUSD: Seeing some selling in the market on the back of talk earlier that a big NZ finance company was in trouble, with some people only reacting to it late in Asia.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
US
Appropriately today’s data filled session will end with the FOMC’s rate decision on interest rates and subsequent comments. With the markets attention firmly focused on the FED market volatility could get intense. With PCE, PPI and CPI all increasing in April, combined with hawkish comments from Fed members most analyst are predicting a 25bp hikes and a bias to a 5.5% move. This should product the desired effect of slowing growth and inflation without sending the US in a recession.

Japan
Japanese Industrial Production (May) printed lower then expected to -1.0% from a -0.1% forecasted figure, which shows a slight sign of contraction after two months of expansion (Apr 1.4%). Despite a weaker Yen which drove exports, increasing commodity prices have taken their toll. Recent mixed economic indicators and a decreasing demand may have an effect on July’s critical Tankan survey.

UK
UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Jun) are expected to rise to 0.5% from Mays low 0.2%. This jump in activity can be directly equated to the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates at their last meeting and home buys viewing this as a good opportunity before rate increase in the near future.

Germany
German Unemployment Rate and Factory Orders might add some clarity to the Euro Zones largest economies outlook. Having recently presented with ECB with some mixed confidence indicators and economic surveys, today’s unemployment figure, expected to remain at 11% which is normal for Europe, indicates a steadying of the German economy.

Canada
Canada’s GDP MoM (Apr) is expected to grow to 0.2% from 0.1% in April. While overall Aprils figures have been the mixed the general consensus is Canada’s economy’s is healthy and growing. However Canada might now be feeling the effects the CAD’s rapid appreciations and the BoC interest rate hikes.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2547 @ 05:46 GMT)
25-06-2006 Weekly Update: EURUSD broke the sideways consolidation zone last week with the break of 1.2537 38% retracement (from 1.1825-1.2979) supported by weekly stochastic pointing lower. But the pair remains in the bull wave from February with support now at 1.2415 and again at 1.2400 50% retracement which we favor to remain intact in the upcoming trading week. For the renewed upside acceleration a break of 1.2695 would give scope for a test of 1.2980 the inverse head and shoulders target.

Thursday: EURUSD showed very little movement yesterday as the market is awaiting the rhetoric from the FOMC statement. Look for a very range bound pair in Europe and look to trade either the upside break of 1.2620 for a test of 1.2695 which would confirm the bull wave from Feb. for the downside sell a break of the 1.2480-00 support area for a test of 1.2400 50% retracement from recent bull wave..

Resist.
1.2693
1.2623
1.2589
1.2547
1.2519
1.2483
1.2413
Support

Quoted:
29 Jun 06
05:46 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8179 @ 05:46 GMT)
25-06-2006 Weekly Update: GBPUSD resumed the downtrend this week with the break of 1.8340 38% (from 1.7229-1.9023), but remained well bid below 1.8126 50% from the current bull wave from February. For now the longer upside trend remains intact above 1.7915, but need to see 1.8530 resistance broken to confirm a continuation of the bull wave which would target the old high from May at 1.9023.

Wednesday: GBPUSD looking very much as the rest of the majors looking for direction after FOMC. Look to place a stop to sell at 1.8130 target 1.7950 and for the upside a break of 1.8265 would give scope for a 1.8370 target short term.

Resist.
1.8393
1.8291
1.8238
1.8179
1.8137
1.8088
1.7986
Support

Quoted:
29 Jun 06
05:46 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (116.44 @ 05:46 GMT)
25-06-2006 Weekly Update: USDJPY took out major resistance last week at 115.75 supported by daily stochastic pointing higher. The pair still remains in a longer term bear channel from 1998 which capped the upside in 2005 presently at 119.80 which technically looks to cap any further medium term corrective rally. Key resistance this week is the G7 gap from April at 116.50-70 a close below this week would challenge 119.00 short term. For the downside key support is now at 114.35 with a break here giving scope for the longer term bear trend to resume.

Thursday: USDJPY still looks very indecisive. The remains below the G7 gap at 116.70, a break here would give scope for a test of 119.00. For the downside the pair has remained well bid early in the week, but expect a break below 115.75 after FOMC to accelerate the downside for a test of 114.50.

Resist.
117.23
116.78
116.62
116.44
116.18
115.89
115.45
Support

Quoted:
29 Jun 06
05:46 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



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