Friday June 30, 2006 - 07:36:51 GMT
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Daily Technicals: Dollar ending the week low
by Marc Spaelti
EURUSD: Support levels held well on Thursday, the bearish trend-line was pierced after the FED announcement and a sharp move to the 1.2700 level followed, overnight a high of 1.2735 was achieved. This is the 50% retracement-level of the June fall from 1.2980, once bypassed expect to advance to 1.2790. Initial support 1.2700, key support 1.2670, a weekly close above that should see the pair try the upside, next target is 1.29. A fall back below would see a new try of the 1.25 level next week.
GBPUSD: After falling to a new low of 1.8090, the pair turned to spike to the 1.8350 key resistance. This is a good start another bullish day and a high weekly close can push this pair to 1.86 next target, strong resistance 1.8430 and 1.8500 on the way up. Initial support 1.8315, strong at 1.8275.
USDJPY: Once 115.90 broke, the pair fell hard to test the 114.65 key support a first time, note that with this low, the 6-week rising trend-line has been breeched, a weekly close underneath of 114.95 is bearish, if short, keep the position with a tight stop just above 115. More resistance 115.50, closing the week beyond that will trigger a new test of medium-term resistance above 117. Going with a bearish view, we expect to advance to 114.30 or next strong support of 113.85, medium-term target is 110.
USDCHF: Dollar fell to reach 1.2305 from where it rebounded to 1.2335. Strong initial resistance 1.2370, sell spikes as a test of 1.2260 key support should be seen today, a lower weekly close is bearish for 1.2050 next.
@08.30GMT UK final GDP Q1
@10.00GMT EU Business Climate/Consumer Confidence June
@12.30GMT US Personal Income May
@13:50GMT U.Michigan Sentiment Index June
@14.00GMT Chicago PMI June
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