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Monday July 3, 2006 - 06:08:16 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar closes bearish
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
After the large spike late Thursday, the Dollar continued on a soft note on Friday, reaching 3-week lows to close the week and the month on a rather gloomy note. EURUSD climbed to 1.2790, reaching the 62% retracement level of the June-fall, this later being a fairly strong resistance, it may take a day or two to break it, once done we expect the pair to continue rising all the way to 1.30. Cable has traded to 1.85, a 4-cent jump in two days, with a sold bas around 1.8350, the pair is poised to test medium-term resistance above 1.86. USDCHF has closed the week underneath of its 1.2260 key-support, outlook is for a fall to at least 1.21, the psychological 1.20 area will come under attack soon. USDJPY finally cracked the 114.65 support, a low of 114.10 traded after a good June Tankan. Expect to advance to strong 113.80 support, a break there is particularly bearish, calling for a move down to the 110 area during the month of July.
Todays Key Issues:
Only date today is the US ISM Manufacturing Index for June, it stood at 54.4 in May and is believed to increase to 55.0.
The Risk Today:
4-H EURUSD: 1.2785/90 is 62% fibo retracement. In light of the steep rise, a correction seems highly likely, buy levels are the 50% and 35% levels at 1.2730 and 1.2670 respectively. Such a dip will also help in drawing a bullish trend-line later on this week. On top, should the pair continue higher without a correction from here, it can reach 1.2885.
4-H GBPUSD: It has not yet reached any target, there is space to trade into the 1.85â€™ handle for a test of the red and eventually the more important blue resistance-line at 1.8645 today, key support and buy level at 1.8350.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2885 S ||1.8580 K ||115.60 S ||1.2420 S |
|1.2815 M ||1.8530 M ||115.05 M ||1.2305 S |
|1.2790 K ||1.8505 S ||114.65 K ||1.2260 K |
|1.2780 ||1.8450 ||114.50 ||1.2245 |
|1.2765 S ||1.8425 M ||114.30 M ||1.2200 S |
|1.2730 S ||1.8385 M ||113.85 S ||1.2160 K |
|1.2670 K ||1.7350 S ||113.15 S ||1.2120 T |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
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Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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