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Monday July 3, 2006 - 10:44:42 GMT
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Mellon FX Daily - US Edition

Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD upside bias ahead of ECB meeting.
• Tankan supports arguments in favour of modest
BoJ rate rise.
• US manufacturing ISM and Turkish CPI feature

Market Outlook

EUR-USD has held the higher levels seen last week and this suggests the likelihood of further gains this week. With last week’s US events having been overcome, without any fresh alarm on interest rates, global markets are breathing a sigh of relief and this should also provide a window of opportunity for some USD weakness. Indeed, this could be compounded
somewhat by the focus on Thursday’s ECB decision and the growing prospect of a modest rate adjustment in Japan. 1.2850 should be seen on EUR-USD over the next few days – possibly higher ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting – although activity will be thinned out by tomorrow’s US Independence Day holiday. The hawks have been making their case in the run-up to this week’s ECB meeting, although it remains unclear whether they command a majority on the council. There is a risk of some of the doves wavering, as the data remains generally strong, equity markets have partly stabilised and a rate hike could easily be justified in current circumstances. However, this cannot be forecast with much confidence. The other question will be whether Trichet offers any hints in the statement, although the “all options are open” message seems the most likely one.

In Japan, the Tankan survey was reasonably upbeat and the balance on output prices (prices charged as opposed to raw material prices) continues to move higher. These are still in negative territory but are at their best level since the early 1990s, suggesting that pricing power is starting to materialise. This holds out the risk of a modest upward adjustment of 10- 15bp in call rate guidance as soon as next week’s BoJ meeting and should offer support to the JPY unless BoJ officials actively downplay the risk of such a development. The Fukui affair remains a potential complication.

Day Ahead
The US manufacturing ISM will be watched for any further signs of growth moderation (last month it eased to 54.4 - lowest level since August 2005). A very strong number will be required to nullify recent market movement.

Turkish CPI will at least arrive in a more stable global market environment and this it elf reduces the element of risk for, Turkish assets and the TRY. However, any major strength in CPI will not be taken well as it would maintain a question mark over Turkish fundamentals, or at least how the authorities will deal with such developments in the months ahead.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Market Holiday
TR PPI (Jun) y/y 09.30 +10.4%
TR CPI (Jun) y/y 09.30 +11.3%
US ISM manu (Jun) 10.00 55.0
JP Monetary base (Jun) y/y 19.50 -16.4%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Tankan - large manu (Q2) 21 21
JP Tankan - large manu (Q3) 22 20
JP Tankan - large non-manu (Q2) 20 19
JP Tankan - large non-manu (Q3) 21 18
CN PMI manu (Jun) 54.1 54.8 last
AU Retail trade (May) m/m -0.3% +0.2%
AU Building approvals (May) m/m +3.3% +1.0%
SE PMI manu (Jun) 63.2 61.2
CH PMI manu (Jun) 64.0 64.0
IT PMI manu (Jun) 57.5 56.9
FR PMI manu (Jun) 56.1 56.2
DE PMI manu (Jun) 59.5 59.0
EU PMI manu (Jun) 57.7 57.5
GB PMI manu (Jun) 55.1 53.2
EU Unemployment rate (May) 7.9% 8.0%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.


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