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Tuesday July 4, 2006 - 08:51:17 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
US Markets will remain closed
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The US Dollar did not manage to correct any of its sharp losses since Thursday, the ISM Manufacturing report for the month of June was a bit of a disappointment, the Purchasing Managers Index dropped 0.6 to 53.8, the lowest level in more than 2 years. EURUSD held above 1.2760 throughout the day and strengthened to a fresh 1-month high of 1.2825, Cable was sidelined ranging 1.8390 to 1.8460. The ECB is holding its interest rate meeting this Thursday. Having hiked just last month to 2.75%, a new hike this week would come as a big surprise. Analysts are expecting the next move at the end of August, but if the current meeting is accompanied by too hawkish remarks, the schedule may be moved forward to the next meeting on August 3rd. Discussions on the timing of a possible Japanese rate hike are in full swing. Japans Economic Minister Yosano said that conditions for a move were slowly coming into place, to which Finance Minister Tanigaki countered that the economy needed the ongoing support of the zero-rate policy. A major Japanese Business lobby thinks otherwise, saying that conditions to hike rates were given now, a move in either July or August would be suitable. PM Koizumi finally called it desirable for the BOJ to maintain current conditions for a while. The BOJ will hold its July meeting next week on Thursday/Friday.
Todays Key Issues:
No data, US holiday today.
The Risk Today:
1-H EURUSD: In a quiet market we expect EURUSD to slowly continue trading higher, strong initial support at 1.2790/1.2800 and room to advance to 1.2850, fist strong resistance 1.2885. Breaking the bullish short-term trend calls for a correction of the rise since Thursday, strong support 1.2730, key support 1.2670.
4-H USDCHF: The 1.2260 key level offers good resistance in the short-term, outlook is bearish to move on down to the 2-month trend-line at 1.2135 over the next day or two, key support 1.2025 may be tried at the end of the week. On top an intra-day breech of the 1.2260 level must be limited to 1.2305 in order to maintain a bearish view.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2885 S ||1.8630 K ||115.60 S ||1.2420 S |
|1.2850 M ||1.8530 S ||115.05 M ||1.2305 S |
|1.2820 M ||1.8505 M ||114.65 K ||1.2260 K |
|1.2810 ||1.8440 ||114.60 ||1.2245 |
|1.2795 S ||1.8405 S ||114.30 M ||1.2220 M |
|1.2730 S ||1.8350 K ||113.85 S ||1.2135 T |
|1.2670 K ||1.7295 S ||113.15 S ||1.2020 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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