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Tuesday July 4, 2006 - 10:04:46 GMT
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Mellon FX Daily - EU Edition

Key Points
• Quiet day in prospect with US away on holiday.
• EUR-USD will retain upside bias given calmer global
markets and focus on ECB.
• Yesterday’s US ISM is the latest friendlier
development for global markets.
• BoJ rate hike talk supports the JPY, although
ultimately it may not be a major positive.

Market Outlook

A quiet day in prospect with the US market away on holiday,
although the data continues to develop against the USD, with
yesterday’s ISM manufacturing offering further evidence of
growth moderation. This should allow higher risk assets
(equities and emerging currencies) to extend recent gains and
will maintain pressure on the USD, not least because it allows
the market to focus more specifically on Thursday’s ECB
meeting. Some upside testing looks likely on EUR-USD ahead
of Thursday, with 1.2850 the initial level to look at.

In Japan, key members of the government (Koizumi, Tanigaki,
Yosano) have started to offer cautious words about the
prospect of BoJ policy tightening. Yosano said yesterday that
conditions are developing in a manner that will eventually be
consistent with an end to current monetary policy but that they
were not quite there yet. Koizumi said that he hoped the BoJ
would take a good look at economic conditions, while Tanigaki
said the BoJ should maintain the zero rate policy for now. Such
comments do not necessarily equate to unbearable pressure on
the BoJ to leave rates unchanged next week. More likely is that
government officials view themselves as a potential
countervailing force during any period of BoJ rate hikes - the
adoption a certain degree of reluctance is only natural. The
bigger complication comes from Fukui’s position. He has
dropped from the headlines a little over the past few days, but
the opinion polls continue to show a big majority favouring his
resignation (70% in a poll released today).

Overall, a modest adjustment of 10-15bp should be seen as
there is currently little justification for rates to remain at zero -
CPI is in positive territory and bank lending is rising again. The
likelihood of a move next week will maintain short-term support
for the JPY, although while any BoJ action will be a source of
initial excitement, the increments to BoJ tightening are likely to
be small and this means the JPY will remain a low yielding
currency for some time to come. The need for fiscal policy
tightening argues against any major rise in interest rates.
The other issue is whether such a move will have any
implications for global markets given prior speculation about the
JPY being a key source of global market liquidity in recent
years. However, once again the increments involved are
minimal and much bigger rises will be required for this to be a

Monetary base data for Japan was also out last night although
the big fall in the y/y rate over the past few months merely
reflects the drop in current account balances at the BoJ. Both
the monetary base and the level of current account balances
are down about ¥20trn from February.

Yesterday’s Turkish CPI data showed a further rise in the y/y
rate to its highest level (+10.1%) for two years, but it was well
below market expectations. With global markets also steadying
this should allow USD-TRY to move closer to 1.50 in the next
day or two, but below there will be difficult.

Data/event BST Consensus*
EU PPI (May) y/y 10.00 +6.0%
AU RBA rate announcement 00.30 5.75%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Monetary base (Jun) y/y -16.2% -16.4%
NZ ANZ commodity prices (Jun) m/m -0.9% +2.4%R last
* Consensus unless stated


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