User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday July 4, 2006 - 16:53:32 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Dollar Remains Weak – ECB and Non-Farm Payrolls to Be Major Driver This Week

DailyFX Fundamentals 07-04-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

- Dollar Remains Weak – ECB and Non-Farm Payrolls to Be Major Driver This Week
- Biggest Rise in Producer Prices Since 2000 Confirms Need for ECB Rate Hike
- Conflicting Dynamics of ZIRP Removal and Fukui Resignation Could Keep Yen Rangebound

US Dollar

The markets here in the US are closed for Independence Day. Unsurprisingly, trading has been excruciatingly quiet. The only currency that is seeing any significant movement is the Canadian dollar, which is rallying on the back of increasing pressure on commodity prices. Despite initially showing some willingness to cooperate with the world on its nuclear enrichment program back in June (which was what took oil prices below $70 and USD/CAD above 1.12), Iran’s top negotiator has just rejected the United Nations Security Council’s demand to suspend their uranium enrichment. Geopolitical risks run high these days as North Korea ups the ante on their threats. This trend will only exacerbate the current dollar bearish environment. Even though the markets reopen tomorrow, we only have US factory orders due for release. Hardly expected to be market moving, traders primarily have their eyes on Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. As we said yesterday, analysts are once again predicting for a very strong NFP report. The broad sentiment seems to be that we will see exaggerated strength after exaggerated weakness. However, this is the same argument that analysts have been using for the past two months and if you recall, the number of jobs created in May were 75k versus a forecast of 170k. A similar shortfall of 62k was seen the month prior. Even if payrolls do come out strongly on Friday, the three month average job growth is still weak. The only significance is that it does not completely close the door on an August interest rate hike which could be moderately dollar bullish. A weak number of 110k and less (the market’s current forecast is 158k) would of course slam the door shut on rate hikes for the time being. Nothing is absolute in the foreign exchange market however and with another job report, 1 ISM, 1 retail sales and 1 consumer price index still due for release after that, expectations and market sentiment could still be changed. In the meantime, although dollar weakness should remain dominant, after having already sold off quite a bit, a significant extension of the current sell-off could be harder to achieve before Friday’s release.


Even though the European markets are open, it appears that many European currency traders have taken this opportunity to go on vacation as well. The EUR/USD has remained in a very narrow 20 point trading range since yesterday’s close. Eurozone producer prices were released this morning and they were right in line with expectations, rising 0.3 percent in the month of May. However inflation pressures are clearly mounting as this brought the annualized pace of growth up from an already robust 5.5 percent to 6.0 percent. Energy prices have been the primary driver of the rise in overall prices and the rapid pace of growth is confirming the need for the European Central bank to raise rates in August. The rise in producer prices was the most since 2000 and even though consumer prices are more important, they signal that inflation is indeed a problem which means that the central bank will need to continue to remain tough. Tomorrow we expect a lot more data that could shed more light on what type of tone ECB President Trichet will be taking at Thursday’s press conference following the monetary policy meeting. The market expects Trichet to reintroduce the word “vigilance” to his comments but the high level of the Euro could deter him from being too hawkish. Either way, another rate hike is inevitable; it is just a matter of how soon.

British Pound

The British pound is stronger despite the fact that construction sector PMI fell significantly last month. The index slipped from 52.7 to 50.8. Teetering just slightly above the 50 expansion / contraction mark, the construction sector is growing at a slower pace which comes in contrast to some of the recent housing market data reports that have been showing a bit of strength. There is still a great deal of UK economic data due for release this week, but following the more neutral comments from the Bank of England last week and the death of BoE member Walton, it is extremely unlikely that the central bank will move on interest rates anytime soon. Therefore their rate decision on Thursday should be a non-event.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen is trading quietly with a mixed performance against the majors. Two questions have been at the front of the minds of Yen traders which are will the Bank of Japan lift their zero interest rate policy before the end summer and will the central bank governor be forced to resign. In the latest developments on these two topics, even though officials within the Japanese government are at odds on how soon ZIRP can be removed, they are still clearly moving in that direction. Economy Minister Yosano said that although conditions are not fully in place now, they are “aligning.” Finance Minister Tanigaki said that the zero interest rate policy should be retained for the time being but the economy is steadily improving. Meanwhile in the private sector, Japan’s business lobby group feels that the time is right for the central bank to increase interest rates now. As we move closer to the inevitable, it is important for Yen traders to prepare for a rate hike that could result in sharp volatility if there is a massive liquidation by carry traders. Meanwhile whether Fukui will be able to keep his job still remains a question. Two recent surveys by Sankei Shimbun and the Tokyo Broadcasting System indicated that 69 percent of their voters are favoring a resignation. The conflicting dynamics of ZIRP and Fukui removals could keep Yen pairs relatively range bound.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105