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Friday July 7, 2006 - 09:27:44 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Focus on Employment report
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Both European Central Banks left interest rates unchanged, GBP rates remain at 4.5% for the 11th month running, we will wait for their minutes to see if it was again a very clear-cut vote. The ECB left their rates at 2.75%, in the press conference that followed, President Trichet used a fairly hawkish tone. While he was far from committing himself to a rate hike in August, he was very upbeat on the economy and growth prospects. Comments such as â€˜the overwhelming sentiment to meet on August 3rdâ€™ and â€˜key rate is still lowâ€™ or â€˜ample liquidityâ€™ all point to a probable hike next month. The Dollar was offered as Trichet spoke, EURUSD traded up to 1.2790, Cable bounced from its intra-day low of 1.8335 to test the 1.8400 resistance, outlook for the day remains with a bearish Dollar bias. The BOJ has raised their GDP growth expectations for the year to 2.1% from 1.9% previously. Separately from the report, Finance Minister Tanigaki said that the end of Japanâ€™s deflation was in sight, but also said that market reactions after the missile launches needed to be taken in account by the BOJ when deciding on interest rates. There is now a majority of forecasters that believe the BOJ will lift rates next week.
Todays Key Issues:
Swiss Jobless rate fell to 3.1% in June from 3.3% previously after unemployment fell 7k. EURCHF hardly reacted, remaining near 1.57, the highest level in two months. German May Industrial Production is due at 10amGMT, it was up 4.6% last month for a YoY increase of 1.6%, no forecast is available. US June Non-farm payrolls at 2.30pm are the key event today. Expectations were for an increase of some 160k, after the strong ADP report on Wednesday, forecasts were raised to 250k. The data showed a 75k increase in May. The unemployment rate, due at the same time should remain unchanged at 4.6%.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD starts in narrow range 1.2765 / 1.2790, this will surely widen once data hit the markets. We keep a Euro-bullish bias and expect support at 1.2710 to hold firm, key support 1.2670. Buy dips, we expect to end the week near 1.2885 strong resistance, setting up a move towards 1.30 next week.
1-H GBPUSD: Stuck in a 60-pip range for the past 48h, it feels like the calm ahead of the storm. A break of the 1.8330/50 support area can spark a quick move down to test underlying trend-line at 1.8240/50, this would also be the 62% pullback-area of last weeks rise. A move through 1.84 should lift the pair to 1.85, key resistance is only at 1.86, but a high weekly close will cause us to expect further upside next week.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2885 S ||1.8600 K ||117.15 K ||1.2440 K |
|1.2825 M ||1.8500 S ||116.00 S ||1.2360 S |
|1.2790 M ||1.8400 S ||115.60 M ||1.2315 M |
|1.2775 ||1.8370 ||115.15 ||1.2295 |
|1.2745 M ||1.8330 P ||115.05 M ||1.2260 K |
|1.2700 S ||1.8230 K ||114.65 S ||1.2230 T |
|1.2670 K ||1.8160 S ||113.80 K ||1.2170 M |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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