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Tuesday May 4, 2004 - 23:57:26 GMT
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Forecast on FX Majors 5th May 2004

General Market Conditions

Pretty much as expected we have seen the Dollar slide over the past 24 hours reaching minimum targets against the Europeans although the Swissie fell a little short at 1.2790. Overall we still feel there are further Dollar losses to be seen against the Europeans but we are a little mixed on how far the current pullback can manage. However, as we see any further tests lower do be aware that there is a good chance it will be the last section of the decline. For now there is resistance for the Dollar at 1.2000-30 Euro, 1.2870-05 Swissie and 1.7865-85 British Pound. We still feel there is room for the medium term pullback to reach 1.2160-00 Euro, 1.2710-60 Swissie and 1.8075-1.8145 British Pound. As for the Japanese Yen we failed to see the favored upside and the decline has reached first support at 109.20. There is a chance this might form the low but until 109.60-110.05 breaks we cannot rule out a dip to 108.30-60.


USDJPY
Price: 109.55

Day View
Resistance: 109.60 ... 109.90 ... 110.05 ... 110.30
Support....: 109.20 ... 108.90 ... 108.60 ... 108.30

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: Failure for 110.00 to hold provoked further downside yesterday which has reached support at 109.20. This may well provide the low. However, before this is confirmed we need a move back above 109.60 and crucially 110.05-10. Once seen we would look for resumption of the uptrend back to 110.60-70 and then above 111.00.

Bearish: Breach of 110.00 signaled the losses down to 109.20 this morning from where we are seeing a pullback. There is resistance at 109.60 and again at 109.90-110.10 and while these hold we cannot rule out a move down to 108.60-70 with minor risk of follow-through to 108.25-30. However, we see this forming a base.



Week View
Resistance: 111.15 ... 111.60 ... 112.20 ... 113.25
Support....: 109.20 ... 108.60 ... 107.25 ... 106.30

The breach of 110.00 allowed a break below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and through to 109.20. Schaff Trend Cycle has remained at zero while FXS-RSI has drifted lower towards territory. The medium to long term is still positive and we see the 108.30-70 area as good support. Break above 110.70 is required to confirm further upside.

Bullish: Losses seen yesterday but being held thus far by 109.20. We cannot rule out a further dip to 108.60-70 (marginal risk of 108.25-30) but overall we consider the main threat to be higher. A break of 110.10 will assist back to 110.70 and a break there will suggest resumption of the underlying uptrend towards 112.75 and 113.90.

Bearish: Yesterday's dip to 109.20 is within bounds of the alternate pullback we had been looking at. We feel there is still risk for the move to continue towards 108.60-70 and possibly 108.25-30. However, only below 108.20 would cause us to re-evaluate the larger wave structure and look for losses to extend towards a support zone between 106.75-107.25.


Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 109.25 ... 111.15 ... 112.30 ... 114.90
Support....: 104.80 ... 103.30 ... 101.30 ..... 99.50

Having seen a move back above the 107.21-65 area the emphasis appears to be back on the upside in line with the bullish weekly and monthly cycles. We require 104.80-00 to hold for this and a move back above 109.25 would encourage gains up to 111.15, 112.32 with 114.90 being a higher target to keep in mind. Back below 104.80 would threaten the 103.42 low and call for losses down to 100.40.



EURUSD
Price: 1.2100

Day View
Resistance: 1.2118 ... 1.2140 ... 1.2165 ... 1.2210
Support....: 1.2055 ... 1.2030 ... 1.2000 ... 1.1970

Bias: Slightly mixed but looking for a pullback first

Bullish: The low at 1.1918 held and we saw direct resumption of the uptrend. While we feel there is larger overall risk to see price higher we are cautious and until 1.2118 breaks we feel there is chance of a pullback that could be as deep as 1.2000-30. Thus, on a test of this support area or a direct break of 1.2118 we would look for price to continue higher with next targets at 1.2165 and then 1.2200-10 which could hold.

Bearish: Price made a high at 1.2118 and we feel that this may well hold for a while. While it does and a break is seen of 1.2055-65 the risk will be for a corrective dip back to 1.2000-30. However, only below here would allow follow-through to 1.1960-75 and possibly 1.1925.



Week View
Resistance: 1.2118 ... 1.2160 ... 1.2210 ... 1.2335
Support....: 1.2000 ... 1.1925 ... 1.1840 ... 1.1760

Price rallied much as expected broke cleanly above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud reaching 1.2118. Schaff TC1 is now rising but is close to 100 while FXS-RSI also managed to rally into overbought territory. We have seen our first target at 1.2070 exceeded and we feel that there is still upside to be seen while 1.2000 holds. Next targets at 1.2165-1.2210.

Bullish: Gains seen as expected and we tend to feel that 1.2118 may well cause a small pullback before the next rally that should move to reach 1.2165 and we suspect 1.2210. Care to be taken at 1.2210 as this may allow a move lower once again. Only a break of this resistance would allow follow-through higher towards 1.2310-35 and possibly the 1.2387 corrective high.

Bearish: The underlying bullish stance is proving correct and thus we do not favor any bearish stance just yet. For us to re-evaluate and look for losses we would need a clean break of 1.2000 and if seen would allow a dip to 1.1960-75 and probably 1.1925. Below there signals a return to the downside.


Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.2085 ... 1.2325 ... 1.2455 ... 1.2655
Support....: 1.1720 ... 1.1560 ... 1.1310 ... 1.1165

While the progress lower has been choppy we do feel that the repeated rejection around 1.2400-55 and the decline from there should now allow price to move down to the Double Top target around 1.1720-50 and we suspect now a stronger decline. Support at 1.1560 may hold for a while but we while 1.1820-50 holds we consider the larger risk to be lower to 1.1165 over the next 4-6 weeks.


USDCHF
Price: 1.2805

Day View
Resistance: 1.2820 ... 1.2840 ... 1.2870 ... 1.2905
Support....: 1.2790 ... 1.2760 ... 1.2730 ... 1.2710

Bias: Slightly mixed but looking for any dip to hold above 1.2760

Bullish: Much as expected price took a sharp decline and has reached 1.2790 thus far. This may cause a pullback but we must be cautious and allow for follow-through to the key 1.2760 support. From here or a direct break above 1.2820 and 1.2840 we would then expect a pullback that should reach 1.2870 at least and possibly 1.2905. Only above the latter would cause a sharper recovery back to 1.2980.

Bearish: The downside developed much as expected and we still need to be cautious of a dip down to 1.2760 where we expect some recovery. Only a direct breach of 1.2760 would allow an immediate test of the 1.2710-30 support. Care advised at this point as we see this as a potential low. Unexpected break of 1.2700 would allow 1.2655 at least.



Week View
Resistance: 1.2905 ... 1.2980 ... 1.3030 ... 1.3100
Support....: 1.2760 ... 1.2710 ... 1.2655 ... 1.2595

Yesterday saw the expected break below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud which is approaching the key 1.2760 and 1.2710 support areas. Schaff Trend Cycle has reversed lower and is almost at zero while FXS-RSI matched this decline into oversold territory. We continue to see downside but we need to watch support at 1.2760 closely in case that forms a base with 1.2700-20 also providing support.

Bullish: As expected the downside produced a move that is now approaching key supports at 1.2710 & 1.2760. We tend to feel that this support range should provide a base for the Dollar but require a break back above 1.2905 and then 1.2980 to assist higher with final confirmation coming on a move above the corrective high at 1.3030. Once through we can expect an assault back on the 1.3226 high.

Bearish: Losses seen much as expected but we feel that caution should be exercised as we reach the 1.2760 support with further target support at 1.2700-20. Thus only a direct loss of 1.2700 would allow the downside to continue with further targets at 1.2655 and probably a test of the 1.2596 corrective low.

Month View
(Updated 3rd April)
Resistance: 1.3085 ... 1.3235 ... 1.3410 ... 1.3700
Support....: 1.2625 ... 1.2515 ... 1.2180 ... 1.1700

The expected move higher has met with some early choppy price action but we feel this should now move onto the 1.3220-35 area this month at the very least and do see some risk of seeing gains extend to 1.3410. Watch this area since it could cause a pullback. Further resistance is around 1.3700.


GBPUSD
Price: 1.7955

Day View
Resistance: 1.7970 ... 1.7990 ... 1.8025 ... 1.8075
Support....: 1.7940 ... 1.7905 ... 1.7885 ... 1.7865

Bias: Mixed but looking for a pullback before higher again

Bullish: Price rallied much as expected yesterday although this easily broke through the initial target at 1.7845 and has reached 1.7990 this morning. We look for 1.7940-50 to hold to allow a move back higher to 1.8020-25 but would look for a peak to occur in this area. Thus only above 1.8025 would see price extend gains towards 1.8075.

Bearish: We feel that a test of 1.8020-25 is likely but from here we feel a pullback is likely. Any break below 1.7930-40 should provoke follow-through lower towards 1.7885 and 1.7865 which should hold. Any break of 1.7865 would imply the peak has been seen and a move down to 1.7810 will be seen.



Week View
Resistance: 1.8020 ... 1.8075 ... 1.8145 ... 1.8210
Support....: 1.7865 ... 1.7810 ... 1.7730 ... 1.7670

As expected price rallied above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and has reached the approximate timeframe for a reversal as dictated by the triangle apex. Schaff Trend Cycle returned higher back to 100 while FXS-RSI drifted higher into overbought territory. The gains have been persistent and we tend to prefer a scenario calling for this to continue towards 1.8145 and possibly 1.8210.

Bullish: The rally was expected but exceeded our conservative target at 1.7845 and has reached 1.7990 this morning. We feel there is room for a move to 1.8020-25 but before there is any further gains there is likely to be a pullback first. This has potential to reach 1.7865 at least - maximum 1.7810. While these support areas hold we look for follow-through to 1.8145 at least and possibly 1.8210. Further resistance is found at 1.8360.

Bearish: The rally yesterday was expected and does not support a bearish stance right now. The most we can expect is a dip down to 1.7865 and possibly 1.7810. However, we feel this will hold. Thus only a breach of the 1.7800 support would provoke losses to extend towards 1.7700-30 and possibly lower.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.8300 ... 1.8605 ... 1.8875 ... 1.9025
Support....: 1.7650 ... 1.7165 ... 1.6905 ... 1.6565

The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and expect to see progress to the next support at 1.7650 this week. From there we should see a correction develop but the coming 4-6 weeks looks bearish towards 1.7165.



(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004


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