User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday July 7, 2006 - 20:35:08 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

FXCM - Further Dollar Weakness Still in Question after Mixed NFP

DailyFX Fundamentals 07-07-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• Further Dollar Weakness Still in Question after Mixed NFP
• Euro Strength Dependent on Who is More Hawkish – ECB or Fed
• Yen Rallies on Speculation that BoJ Could Move Next Week

US Dollar

The much awaited non-farm payrolls report for the month of June was a big disappointment and did little to clear the air on whether the Federal Reserve could potentially raise interest rates again in August. Even though the headline non-farm payrolls number came in significantly below expectations, the details of the number and the household survey was not nearly as dollar bearish. We have already seen the US dollar recuperate a good portion of its losses against the Euro as the up tick in average hourly earnings, rebound in manufacturing payrolls and strong job growth as measured by the household survey create a more mixed report. The market was really banking on the NFP number to sway the dollar in one direction, however the ambiguous number only prolongs the uncertainty by making next month’s non-farm payrolls report even more important. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for August 8th, which means that we still have one NFP, one retail sales and one consumer price inflation number before the meeting. Although today’s number signals that job growth is sluggish, the jump in average hourly earnings suggests that wage pressures are still prevalent in the US economy and leaves the door open for another hike in August. FOMC voting member Kohn made surprisingly hawkish comments yesterday when he said that even though the Fed’s continual rate hikes run the risk of inducing weakness in the economy, “there is greater risk from not tightening” if inflation gets out of hand. Therefore they may not be willing to back down quite yet, especially if we see an up tick in CPI later in the month. At close of business Friday, August Fed Fund futures are now pricing in a 48 percent chance of a quarter point rate hike in August, down from 52 percent yesterday. Right now the direction of the EUR/USD will depend on who is more aggressive when the time comes to move on rates. Depending on how vigilant the ECB is in August, the EUR/USD could be contained within a 1.26-1.2950 range. In addition, Bernanke is giving his semi-annual testimony on the economy and monetary policy on July 19th, therefore dollar bears may hold off until they get clearer direction from the Fed Chief. For the time being, EUR/USD strength predominates as the hawkish comments from the ECB press conference will reverberate through the market while it awaits Bernanke's testimony. We promised to update the FXCM SSI numbers and they are the following: EUR/USD -1.18, USD/JPY 1.38, GBP/USD -1.24, USD/CHF 2.48.


Oil prices are ticking higher and this has everyone worried, including the European Central bank. ECB monetary policy member Bini Smaghi echoed Trichet’s comments from yesterday by saying that they need to be “very vigilant” and “do everything possible” to contain inflation. The ECB has let the market know their full intention to raise interest rates next month and most likely at the beginning of the month than at the end. Whether or not the EU finance ministers agree is something we will learn more about next week when they convene. We suspect some may start to express concern about the level of the Euro, but only if we break back above 1.29. Even though a stronger Euro hurts exports, it also offsets some of the higher oil prices by increasing the purchasing power of European nations. The World Cup finals this weekend will give the German economy a last big boost before the country has to return to being dependent upon the spending of their own citizens. After slightly weaker retail PMI numbers yesterday, industrial production came in very strong, rising a more than expected 5.9 percent from 4.2 percent the previous month. In the week ahead, there continues to be an exceptionally busy Eurozone economic calendar. Aside from official comments, the French industrial production report, the trade balance for Germany and France and the French consumer price index are all due for release in addition to the third quarter released of Eurozone GDP. Meanwhile confirming the continually strong performance of the Swiss economy was this morning’s unemployment rate which dipped from 3.3 percent to 3.1 percent in the month of June.

British Pound

The British pound is stronger against both the US dollar and the Euro today despite the lack of any news from the UK. Over the past week, the divergence between the Bank of England’s neutral monetary policy and the European Central Bank’s aggressively hawkish policy has become increasingly clear. Therefore even though the EUR/GBP has fallen 0.5 percent today, which is much larger than its average daily move, as long as fundamentals hold, this correction should be nothing more than a blip in an overall uptrend. Against the dollar however, the British pound has been left to the whim of US economic data. This could change in the week ahead as we expect inflation numbers, the trade balance, retail sales and the unemployment report. Meanwhile there have been rumors that Morgan Stanley Chief Economist David Miles could be tapped to join the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. He has not commented on the rumors but if this is true, based upon Morgan’s Stanley’s forecasts, Miles would be categorized as more of a hawk than a dove.

Japanese Yen

It has been a great day for the Japanese Yen as the currency strengthened against all of the majors. Not only is the market pricing in the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan next week for the first time in six years, but also the possibility of an emergency meeting by the People’s Bank of China. The Japanese Cabinet is expected to increase their 2006 GDP forecast for Japan from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent and their CPI forecast from 0.5 percent to 0.6 percent YoY, which would confirm the improving conditions in the Japan and support a rate hike . Sparking more talk of a move next week were overnight comments from BoJ Tanigaki who said that an end to deflation is in sight. The only wrinkle would be whether the Fukui scandal holds them back at all. As for China, the Yuan hit a post revaluation low causing the market to speculate on whether the central bank will hold a meeting to widen the trading band for the USD/CNY currency pair. Even before last night however, there has already been talk of this after a state run newspaper brought up the possibility earlier this week. Although the government has denied any meetings, another move by China is inevitable and when it comes, it will be perceived as positive for the Japanese Yen.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105