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Monday July 10, 2006 - 10:11:18 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Preparing for the BOJ
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The US employment report on Friday was far from being as strong as analysts expected. With a 120k increase in payrolls, the increase was only slightly better than previous months and very much lower than the expected 200 to 300k rise, and it was no surprise that the US Dollar was sold of for a low weekly close. EURUSD traded up to 1.2860 for a quick spike before it settled around 1.2800 to close the week high. Cable reached a top of 1.8540 but closed the week underneath of its strong resistance at 1.8520. USDJPY finally broke the strong 114.65 level from where it sold off strongly to reach a low of 113.85 on Friday, the move continued this morning when it reached a low of 113.45 in early Europe. With the BOJ meeting and a possible rate hike just a few days away, this pair is set to fall further, next target is 111.50. Meanwhile talks either supporting a rise or further stand-still continue to make headlines, while government spokesman Abe wants to keep the zero-rate policy to fight deflation, MOFâ€™s Hosokawa points to inflation pressures. Japans biggest business lobby also repeated calls to finally hike rates this week, saying conditions for such a move were â€˜right nowâ€™.
Todays Key Issues:
UK June PPI data this morning was mixed. PPI Output grew 0.1% last month, YoY growth rose to 3.3%, highest in 9 months. PPI Input was up only 0.5% for a lower YoY rise of 8.4%, lowest in 9 months. Cable dropped a few pips from this morningâ€™s high of 1.8520. US May Wholesale Trade data is due at 2pm GMT. After a 0.9% rise in April it is forecast to increase by a slower 0.5% this time around.
The Risk Today:
Daily EURUSD: After successfully holding at the 1.25 area 10 days ago, the pair has now advanced above 1.28, outlook is further bullish for a rise towards strong 1.2960/1.3000 area next. Initial support this week is close-by at 1.2785, a breech there can see a short-term dip back down to key support at 1.2700, suggest buying as we trade close to that level, looking for a medium-term move up to 1.30 after that.
Daily USDCHF: Weâ€™ve seen a weekly low of 1.2185 on Friday, but the pair retraced to close the week above its support at 1.2230. This will be the a pivot-support early on in the week, a daily close underneath of it send the pair in search of the 1.1950/1.2000 low, while above the pair can trade sideways, retracing back to 1.2300 or as high as 1.2420 max. Suggest waiting for peaks to establish fresh USDCHF short positions.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.8650 M ||114.65 K ||1.2425 K |
|1.2885 S ||1.8580 K ||114.10 S ||1.2320 M |
|1.2840 M ||1.8530 S ||113.80 P ||1.2260 S |
|1.2800 ||1.8500 ||113.55 ||1.2235 |
|1.2785 T ||1.8470 M ||113.40 M ||1.2230 S |
|1.2750 S ||1.8410 S ||113.10 S ||1.2130 M |
|1.2700 K ||1.8350 K ||112.85 S ||1.2070 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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