Monday July 10, 2006 - 10:11:49 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
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FX Trading â€“ Question time
The main theme in play, we think: Has the Fed already gone too far? Are we seeing the lag effects of monetary policy (about 24-months since the Fed began its campaign) leading to a slowdown in the economy? Is it beginning to bite into seemingly everybodyâ€™s favorite market--commodities?
Crude oil has taken over the roll as the crowdâ€™s favorite speculative commodity now that gold has had a bit of setback. Interesting the way crude and euro are moving. Does it suggest mid-East oil revenues are dumped into euro? And if interest rates squeeze the demand side of the equation in the economy, wouldnâ€™t we expect it to impact crude prices? And if so, does it bode well for the euroâ€”the key alternative for those who constantly bash the buck?
Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital Black Swan Subscription-based Service
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