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Monday July 10, 2006 - 10:49:10 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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FX Daily - Mellon Foreign Exchange

Key Points
• EUR-USD suppressed by EUR-JPY liquidations.
• BoJ meeting is being eyed by the market.
• Outlook for majors remains unclear – overall upside risk on EUR-USD.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD has pulled back overnight, with EUR-JPY liquidations the main story – USD-JPY is also lower. IMM data in recent weeks (including last week) has shown spec positioning very long EUR and fairly short JPY, so some reversal of this is not surprising perhaps given the market’s focus on a possible BoJ rate hike this Friday. This may have a little further to go today, especially on EUR-JPY. Support on EUR-USD is at 1.2765. The reaction to Friday’s US employment data was complicated by the eventual sell-off in US equities that followed the profit warning by 3M (released 30 minutes after the employment report). While such a development could be viewed as USD negative, this is not necessarily the case if it has negative implications for global equity markets and emerging currencies as it could precipitate flows back into the USD investor base and a paring down of positional risk amongst potential USD shorters. It is yet another factor that makes for an unclear outlook for the USD against the majors and increases the risk of EUR-USD staying within recent ranges. EUR-JPY liquidations aside, there is still some upside risk for EUR-USD, if global markets can steady further, but it is unlikely to be major. Further US corporate news will watched carefully in coming weeks. 1.2850-60 is the main barrier to a test of 1.2950-1.3000. In Japan, the market is still viewing the likelihood of a 25bp rate hike, although there is a chance that the BoJ adopts a more cautious view on how to proceed. The market will be sensitive to any media suggestions about Friday’s outcome. USD-JPY has some risk down to 112.95-113.00 initially. In the UK, the y/y rate for the core measure of producer output prices (PPI output) rose to +2.9%, the highest since November 2004. The MPC view this as a key lead indicator for CPI, although while it is a potential building block for a future MPC rate rise - strength in spending and possibly average earnings
will also be required. The UK policy debate remains sterile compared to what is happening in the US, Eurozone and Japan and this may explain the lack of a market reaction to today’s news. In fact, EUR-GBP actually rose following the data.


Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Consumer credit (May) 15.00 +$3.2bn
AU Housing finance (May) m/m 21.30 +0.8%

Latest data Actual Consensus*

JP M2 plus CDs (Jun) y/y +1.2% +1.5%
JP Bank lending (Jun) y/y +1.7% +1.5%
AU ANZ job ads (Jun) m/m -3.2% +7.7% last
JP Machinery orders – core (Jun) m/m -2.1% -5.0%
DE Trade balance (May) €12.9bn €11.5bn
DE Current account (May) €4.3bn €7.0bn
DE Exports (May) m/m -1.5% -0.9%
FR Ind prod (May) m/m +2.0% +1.3%
FR Manu output (May) m/m +2.5% +1.1%
SE Ind prod (May) m/m +0.8% 0.0%
NO CPI (Jun) y/y +2.1% +2.3%
NO CPIX (Jun) y/y +0.8% +0.8%
GB PPI input (Jun) m/m -0.2% -0.1%
GB PPI output (Jun) m/m +0.1% +0.1%
GB PPI output core (Jun) y/y +2.9% +2.7%
GB ODPM house prices (May) y/y +5.6% +5.3%
* Consensus unless stated

Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.15 EDT Monday July 10 2006
©2006, Mellon Financial Corporation


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