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Tuesday July 11, 2006 - 11:54:32 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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FX Daily - Mellon Foreign Exchange

Key Points
• Markets still weighed down by uncertainty.
• Positional risk remains on EUR-JPY and EUR-USD.
• BoC policy announcement features today.


Market Outlook
Once again the market is largely being driven by the degree of global risk rather than anything specific on interest rates. Despite the slightly softer interest rate background developing in the US, the US equity market remains a nervous place, with concern about earnings the latest source of uncertainty. This in turn is weighing on global risk appetites and helping to check both the recent recovery in some emerging currencies as well as existing positioning on the majors. Part of this yesterday, at least initially, was a JPY story, with position cutting on the JPY weighing on the EUR in general. As far as the JPY is concerned, there may be more of this to come ahead of Friday’s policy decision, but it is unlikely to be sustained. There is a risk the BoJ does not hike rates at all or opts for a smaller than expected rise and even if they hike by 25bp, this is likely to be accompanied by a dovish message to head off any negative fallout for markets and/or criticism from the government. EUR-USD will retain some corrective risk given current positioning, especially if the 1.2675-1.2700 area breaks. Some fresh confidence in equity markets is needed to prompt a retest of 1.2850-60 (GE earnings due Friday. Overall, major movement on EUR-USD is unlikely - any dips should eventually be reversed owing to support from ECB expectations. GBP was negatively affected by a much higher than expected trade deficit, but this data is volatile, with the global deficit (£6.8bn) merely moving back up towards the spiky highs seen in January (£6.7bn) and February (£7.2bn). A couple more months of this kind of performance is required for the market to be freshly concerned about UK trade trends. The BRC retail survey for June showed y/y sales growth decelerating a little (+2.3%) from the highs (+3.6%) of May, although the market will reserve judgment on what will happen to sales once World Cup distortions are eliminated. July and August data needs to be seen before a firm view will emerge.

Day Ahead
Canada – the market is still fairly split about the likely outcome of today’s BoC meeting, although last week’s softer employment report has slightly shifted sentiment in favour of
rates being left unchanged. Taking the last two employment numbers together, there does seem to be overall strength, but given such m/m volatility, there has to be a certain lack of confidence in interpreting the data. The BoC would probably like to see more evidence. Also, the strong CPI data reported last month is just ‘one’ number and core CPI is only at +2.0% - again the BoC may want to see more on this. At the last meeting on May 24, the BoC hiked rates by 25bp and signalled that policy would be on hold. The question now is whether such a claim has been made redundant by recent data developments? It is a close call, but the BoC look set to stay with their pause signal for now and leave rates unchanged. However, there may be a note of caution in the statement that suggests the possibility of more moves in the future depending on the data. The next CPI number is on July 21. USD-CAD needs to stay below 1.1290-1.1310 to avoid further upside and to stay within the recent trading range. This is just about favoured, although the main threat will come from any downside break in EUR-USD.

Diary -Data/event EDT Consensus*
US Chain store sls (w/e Jul 8) w/w 07.45 -0.7% last
CA Housing starts (Jun) 08.15 220k
CA New house prices (May) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
US Redbook sls (w/e Jul 8) m/m 08.55 +1.8% last
CA BoC policy announcement 09.00
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jul 9) 17.00 -9 last
JP Domestic CGPI (Jun) y/y 19.50 +3.4%
AU Consumer sentiment (Jul) 21.30 -0.5% last
Latest data Actual Consensus*
US Consumer credit (May) +$4.4bn +$3.2bn
AU Housing finance (May) m/m +4.7% +0.8%
JP Consumer confidence (Jun) 47.3 49.2
DE WPI (Jun) y/y +5.3% +4.9%
FR Trade balance (May) -€1.8bn -€2.1bn
SE CPI (Jun) y/y +1.5% +1.5%
SE CPI UND1X (Jun) y/y +1.5% +1.4%
IT Ind prod (May) m/m +0.9% +1.2%
GB Global trade balance (May) -£6.8bn -£5.8bn
GB Non-EU trade balance (May) -£3.7bn -£3.2bn
GB BRC retail survey (Jun) y/y +2.3% +3.6% last
* Consensus unless stated
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.20 EDT Tuesday July 11 2006

©2006, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

 

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