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Wednesday July 12, 2006 - 09:19:56 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Key event is US Trade Balance
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The UKâ€™s May Trade Deficit increased 20% to Â£6.7Bln, more than was expected by analysts. It caused a repeat of the move seen on Monday with GBPUSD dropping to 1.8370 from where it once again bounced to close the day near its 1.8500 resistance. EURUSD meanwhile was held in a tight range, holding its 1.2700 key support with ease before it went bid to end the day at 1.2765, causing us to firmly hold on to the bearish-Dollar scenario for the days to come. A day before the long awaited BOJ rate meeting, Japanese Finance Minister Tanigaki repeated his plea to leave the zero-rate policy in place. Government spokesman Abe, another dove, would like the BOJ to wait for deflation worries to be overcome completely. Uncertain whether we will indeed see a historic first rate hike this week, USDJPY has remained in fairly tight range around 114.45, briefly testing the 114.65 key level yesterday and again right now in Europe. The Bank of Canada yesterday opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%, causing the biggest move of the day as USDCAD as the pair rallied through medium-term resistance of 1.1275 to spike to 1.1350.This could be very significant, at present levels we are above a 3Â½ year bearish trend-line, a high weekly close could end bearish sentiment, replacing it by a corrective move towards 1.20/1.25 over the next 6 months.
Todays Key Issues:
UK ILO unemployment this morning was a touch higher than expected, driving the unemployment rate to 5.4% from 5.3%, causing a GBPUSD sell-off of some 30pips to 1.8425. Euroland 1st Quarter GDP will see its final release at 9amGMT. Market expect the previously reported 1.7% growth to be adjusted up to 1.8% US May Trade Balance is due at 12.30GMT. After a lower than expected increase of the deficit in April, we are again looking for just a slight increase from $63.4Bln to $65.0Bln.
The Risk Today:
4-H EURUSD: The 1.2700 support held very well in the past 10 days and continues to be the key support. Keeping a bullish bias while above, we have drawn a fresh support-line going through 1.2735 this morning, target of a possible bullish move remains at 1.2950. We like to hold or add to long positions, next spike up should breech the 1.2785 initial resistance and spike at 1.2820, strong resistance today.
4-H USDJPY: We are currently trading at the 114.65 key level, 3-week bearish trend-line is just a touch higher at 114.95. Suggest selling here, expect a minimum dip to 114.05, by the end of the week it should trade down to 112.85.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2880 S ||1.8680 K ||115.50 S ||1.2420 K |
|1.2825 K ||1.8565 K ||114.95 T ||1.2335 S |
|1.2785 S ||1.8500 S ||114.65 K ||1.2290 T |
|1.2765 ||1.8465 ||114.35 ||1.2275 |
|1.2735 T ||1.8405 S ||114.05 S ||1.2250 K |
|1.2700 K ||1.8370 S ||113.70 M ||1.2210 M |
|1.2670 S ||1.8270 K ||112.70 S ||1.2150 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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