User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday July 12, 2006 - 10:34:12 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

FX Daily - Mellon Foreign Exchange

Key Points
• EUR-USD up a little but still stuck in range.
• Some near-term downside risk for the CAD.
• AUD looking better as rate hike prospects grow.
• UK labour, US trade, Canadian trade feature today,
• Australian employment/RBA’s Stevens tonight.

Market Outlook
The recovery in US equities off earlier lows helped EUR-USD higher, but it remains firmly stuck in the recent trading range (likewise with the majors in general). Risk appetites remain tentative and this will continue to support the USD. A firmer recovery in global equities would be the most preferable scenario for a recovery in risk appetites and EUR-USD and somewhat paradoxically this would be helped by any good news from the US earnings season (GE due Friday). In the meantime, the US trade deficit could exert an influence today (see below), while the market is still waiting to see what the BoJ does on Friday. Above 1.2780 today would prompt some uplift. The BoC yesterday stuck with the previous plan of leaving rates on hold and also offered a fair degree of satisfaction about how the current state of monetary would achieve the desired outcome on inflation. While it is evident that any further strength in the data could revive rate hikes at any time, for the time being a potential positive for the CAD has been undermined. This does open up some short-term vulnerability, especially with rate hike expectations on the rise in alternatives like the AUD, but overall CAD fundamentals (solid growth, high trade surplus, sound public finances) remain strong. The big question now is how much slippage there will be against the CAD in the very short-term and pivotal in this regard will be the 1.1290-1.1310 area (i.e. the top of the recent trading range) on USD-CAD. There is upside risk as long as it stays above there and it could run as high as 1.15-1.16 depending on other matters like general USD performance. However, any moves in this direction should ultimately be reversed. Canadian trade data is due today (see below) and could be influential. AUD-CAD needs to get above 0.8615 to continue the improvement seen since the end of last week and at least a test of this level looks likely over the next 24 hours or so. The AUD was helped further last night by the rise in consumer sentiment and as long as it remains above 0.7525 there is upside risk (see below for more on the AUD).

Day Ahead
UK – labour market data features in the UK and unemployment has been on the rise since Q3 last year. The market will also be interested in the average earnings number to gauge potential inflation pressure, especially after the stronger than expected core PPI output data reported on Monday. A steady earnings number seems the most likely outcome. US – the latest monthly trade data is due and this always carries market moving potential for the USD. Last month, the April deficit failed to bounce as high as the market had expected, coming in at $63.4bn after the $61.9bn and $62.7bn numbers seen in March and February, which were below the $64-$66.6bn range seen through Sep-05 to Jan-06.

Canada – the trade data is also due in Canada and of interest will be whether the weaker tone to exports (seen since the turn of the year) has continued. The BoC has noted this and it has clearly been a factor in their policy deliberations. In yesterday’s policy statement, when talking about economic prospects they said “The additional strength that has developed in domestic demand is expected to persist into next year, but this should be more than offset by a weaker outlook for net exports, owing primarily to the recent strength of the Canadian dollar.”

Data/event BST Consensus*
GB Claimant count (Jun) 09.30 +4.3k
GB Average earnings (May) 3m y/y 09.30 +4.0%
GB Earnings ex-bonuses (May) 3m y/y 09.30 +3.8%
US Trade balance (May) 13.30 -$65.0bn
CA Trade balance (May) 13.30 C$4.5bn
CA Exports (May) m/m 13.30 -2.3% last
CA Net portfolio balance (May) 13.30 -C$0.8bn last
JP Trade balance (May, sa) 00.50 ¥1.6trn
AU Employment (Jun) 02.30 +10k
AU Unemployment rate (Jun) 02.30 4.9%
AU RBA’s Stevens speaks on policy 03.30
Latest data Actual Consensus*
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jul 9) -10 -9 last
JP Domestic CGPI (Jun) y/y +3.3% +3.4%
AU Consumer sentiment (Jul) +3.5% -0.5% last
* Consensus unless stated

Australia – data on the labour market is due tonight and arrives on the heels of yesterday’s strong housing finance report and this morning’s rise in consumer sentiment. Employment has been fairly strong in recent months and any more evidence of this would further raise speculation about the possibility of an RBA rate hike in early August. The Q2 CPI data (due July 26) will also be key in shaping sentiment about the outcome of that meeting. RBA deputy governor Stevens is set to speak on policy tonight and should offer some insights into current RBA thinking. After the last move in May they subsequently offered a fairy relaxed view of inflation risks, but he may be more equivocal on this occasion, which would imply that all options are indeed open for the August meeting.

©2006, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105