User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday July 13, 2006 - 10:55:20 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

Key Points
• Market uncertainty weighs on positioning – US
earnings season, BoJ in focus.
• BoJ may err on the side of caution tomorrow –
August CPI revision will be key for sentiment about
future policy.
• CHF supported by Israeli/Lebanese conflict.
• AUD looking good as data supports RBA rate hike
on August 2.
• ECB bulletin, UK BCC survey, BoC Policy Report
feature today.

Market Outlook

Uncertainty reigns, especially amongst those with existing positions. For a time yesterday EUR-USD was falling while equity markets were mproving and this is not something that has been commonplace over the past couple of months, with rising equity markets typically associated with improving risk appetites and a greater willingness to maintain short USD positioning. As it happened, equities eventually weakened anyway, but EUR-USD just about held on to the pivotal area around 1.2660-70, which has marked both bottoms and tops of trading ranges since early May. Patience is basically wearing thin amongst those looking for a further fall in the USD, with the latest disappointment being the lack of followthrough to what was generally considered to be a less hawkish presentation from the Fed at its last meeting. A stronger EUR-USD is favoured overall, but there are clearly risks to that scenario in the short-term. A break below the forementioned area at 1.2660-70 would trigger some liquidation of long positioning. The immediate uncertainty relates to the possible fragility of global equity markets running into the US corporate earnings season and tomorrow’s <>BoJ outcome. The former is as much about earnings prospects for the remainder of the year than about what happened in the latest quarter, with the market still
on alert to the possibility of a peak in earnings as well as economic growth. GE’s results tomorrow will be a key driver of entiment on this issue ahead of the next two weeks, when the vast bulk of corporate earnings will be released. The BoJ rate hike has generally been seen as a done deal and whereas talk of BoJ policy change a few months back unsettled equity markets (via JPY liquidity arguments) there has been less angst about the issue on this occasion. However, with sentiment a little fragile because of other matters i.e. US earnings, this is no longer an absolutely given. As for what the BoJ will do they will be tempted to go ahead and hike 25bp given that the market has been expecting such an outcome, we still see a significant chance of a more cautious approach (10-15bp hike rather than no hike at all). Over the past couple of days it is the discount rate that has been the major source of speculation. In the case of a rise in the call rate to 0.25%, there is uncertainty about what will happen to the discount rate (currently 0.1%). A move to 0.5% would perhaps make for a more efficient working of the money market, but this may be seen as sending the wrong signal about future tightening prospects so there has been talk about 0.4% or even 0.35%. However, the BoJ could quite easily communicate sentiment about future policy actions verbally if it so desires. What is clear though is that the market is now looking beyond the largely symbolic announcement of the end of the zero interest rate policy and is now eager for indications about how far and how fast rates will rise over the coming year. A key factor in this regard will be the CPI revision scheduled for August 25. The composition and base year of the CPI will be altered and the government is likely to formalise the core measure excluding both food and energy, but will of course continue to publish the existing core measure, which only excludes fresh food. The government has only been publishing an estimate of the ex-food and energy measure since the back end of last year and this has been running below the y/y rate of the core measure excluding just fresh food (the latter still being the primary focus of the BoJ). For example, last month, while the current core CPI y/y rose to +0.6% from +0.5%, the equivalent number on the ex-food and energy measure eased back to +0.1% from +0.2%. The big problem is that the CPI revision is expected to have a dampening impact on the index and if this also equates to a lower y/y rate the ex-food and energy y/y rate could slip back into negative territory. Such a development would not be lost on a government that is still taking the view that deflationary forces have not yet been eradicated. Whatever happens on August 25 could have major implications for sentiment about both BoJ policy in Q4 and Q1 and the JPY.
labour market data came out stronger than expected, suggesting that an August 2 RBA rate hike is now pretty much a done deal. It will take a remarkably weak Q2 CPI report (due July 26) to counter this. This backdrop should see further AUD outperformance over the next couple of weeks. The RBA’s Stevens did not add that much to the debate. He noted that wages had been well behaved but that the last rate hike had not hit consumer sentiment as much as previous moves. Increasing conflict between Israel and Lebanon has been supporting the CHF this morning, although supports at 1.5605-30 on EUR-CHF need to break to get this going.

Market Outlook
DT Wednesday June 8 2005
Day Ahead
Eurozone - the ECB’s monthly report is due out and this should reflect the sentiments aired by Trichet at the recent postmeeting
press conference. In this regard it should support sentiment about the likelihood of a rate hike on August 3.
UK - the British Chamber of Commerce survey of business in both manufacturing and service sectors is released and is likely
to paint a fairly resilient picture of growth, although according to the media there may be some indication of disappointment on
exports, which would be in contrast to the more upbeat noises coming through the CBI survey.
Canada - the Monetary Policy Report Update should flesh out the comments made in Tuesday’s policy statement and the
market will be looking for more clues about policy risks in the coming months. However, steady policy is again likely to be the
central message. A key element of the growth moderation scenario painted by the BoC is a negative contribution from net
exports and exports were once again fairly soft in yesterday’s trade release. Short-term upside risk remains on USD-CAD while above 1.1290-1.1310.


Data/event EDT Consensus*

EU ECB monthly bulletin 09.00
GB BCC business survey (Q2) 11.00
NZ PMI manu (Jun) 13.00 58.2 last
US Initial claims (w/e Jul 8) 13.30 320k
US Continuing claims (w/e Jul 1) 13.30 2455k last
CA BoC Policy Report Update 15.30
US Federal budget (Jun) 19.00 $20.0bn
US Fed’s Stern speaks on economy 21.15
AU Trade balance (May) 02.30 -A$1.1bn
Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Retail sales (May) m/m +1.3% +0.5%
JP Trade balance (May, sa) ¥1.6trn ¥1.6trn
AU Employment (Jun) +52k +10k
AU Unemployment rate (Jun) 4.9% 4.9%
JP Ind prod (May, final) m/m -1.3% -1.0%
FR CPI (Jun, prel) y/y +1.9% +2.0%
* Consensus unless stated

©2006, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105