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Friday July 14, 2006 - 09:37:26 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The US Dollar remained bid throughout Thursday on the back of worries that the Lebanon attacks could escalate. Commodity prices rallied strongly for a third day in a row, Brent Crude is opening at a historic high above $77 per barrel this morning. In currencies it was once again Cable that traded most volatile, after a new failure to clear the 1.85 resistance yesterday morning, it has traded down to a 1.8360 low overnight and risks are to end the week a touch lower. This weeks short-term bearish trend in EURUSD held, its resistance stands at 1.2700 this morning, a low of 1.2650 was reached this morning. Weekly Jobless Claims in the US disappointed, they rose 332k and the 4-week average was up nearly 10k to 317k, but the data did little more than cause a temporary set-back of the Dollar rise on Thursday. The BOJ has hiked interest rates by 25bp, Governor Fukui explained that there was no intention to gradually increase rates going forward, and that the present step served to stabilize prices. The vote in favor of this first rate hike in six years was 6:3. The Central Banks move caused no USDJPY selling at all, instead worries that the ongoing increase in commodities will harm Asian economies the most have kept USDJPY bid throughout the past 24h, a high of 116.15 was reached this morning and risk is to continue to 117.00. The FED reported a fall of $6.64Bln in Foreign Central Bank Debt holdings for the week ending July 12th. Minneapolis FED president Stern in a hawkish speech said that core measures of inflation were moving higher and that price stability was the most important contribution of a Central Bank. In the same speech he was very up-beat about the ongoing strength of the US economy, saying that growth prospects in 2006 and 2007 remained on par with the past 2 years.
Todays Key Issues:
US June retail sales are due at 12.30GMT, after a very weak release last month of -1.5% we look for a 0.5% increase this time around. The preliminary July reading of the U. Michigan Sentiment Index is due at 13.50GMT, it is expected to remain near its June level of 84.9. May Business Inventories finally at 2pm are believed to increase by a steady 0.5% after 0.4% in April.
The Risk Today:
1-H EURUSD: The 1.2700 level has now been breeched, short-term bearish trend-resistance has crossed that key level this morning. While down here, risk is for the Dollar to continue strengthening, target is the medium-term rising support at 1.2575. Should the pair recover above of 1.2700, a spike to 1.2785 can be expected before the week ends.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2780 S ||1.8540 K ||117.00 K ||1.2445 S |
|1.2700 T ||1.8490 S ||116.60 S ||1.2400 K |
|1.2680 M ||1.8415 M ||116.10 M ||1.2350 S |
|1.2665 ||1.8385 ||115.85 ||1.2330 |
|1.2650 M ||1.8360 S ||115.65 M ||1.2300 M |
|1.2620 S ||1.8330 M ||115.10 T ||1.2260 K |
|1.2575 K ||1.8295 K ||114.65 S ||1.2160 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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