User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday July 14, 2006 - 10:23:09 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Mellon - FX Daily European Edition

Key Points
• JPY weaker as BoJ hikes rates 25bp, but signals
that very low rates to be maintained.
• EUR-USD breaking below 1.2660-70.
• AUD weaker on trade, USD strength and softer
global markets.
• US retail sales, import prices, Michigan sentiment
feature today.

Market Outlook

The BoJ obliged market expectations by deciding unanimously to lift the target for the call rate to 0.25% from zero. A 6-3 majority supported a move in the discount rate to 0.4% from 0.1%. The statement said that the economy continued to expand moderately, in line with the outlook for the economy and prices released on April 28 and that both economic expansion and a positive trend in consumer prices were set to continue. They noted that the stimulus from zero rates had recently been amplified by the improvements seen in economic activity (pickup in lending?) and inflation (lower real rates). In future, the BoJ said that rates would be adjusted gradually depending upon their assessments of economic activity and prices, adding that “very low interest rates will probably be maintained for some time”. Overall, the announcement is fairly close to market expectations, but the main question now being asked is how far and how fast rates will rise in future and this remains unclear. The BoJ has tried to soothe any concerns about over-tightening by saying that future adjustments will be gradual and that ‘very low’ rates will be in place for some time, but basically all options are open. As we have been noting over the past week or so, a key factor will be the revision to the CPI released on August 25 and what happens to the government’s preferred measure of core CPI that excludes food and energy and not just fresh food. There is a risk of the y/y rate moving into negative territory and this would heighten pressure from the government for rates to remain at very low levels. Another 0.25% hike before year-end is the most that can be expected at this stage. As far as the JPY is concerned there is nothing fresh from today’s announcement, but there is probably a sense of anticlimax in the fact that rates may not be moving that much in the near future. The JPY has been slightly softer both before and after the rate hike. The zero rate policy has formally been brought to a close, but for now the JPY is still top of the class when it comes to low-yielding currencies. On USD-JPY the move above 115.80 is potentially significant, although the 116.70 level (which could be approached today) is the main level on the topside. Whether or not this holds will be critical to JPY direction. EUR-JPY also looks set to test the recent high at 147.40 and this may be broken. EUR-USD also broke below the key 1.2660-70 area in early European trading and if this is not reversed quickly this morning a move back to 1.2500-50 should be seen as stale positions are liquidated. The AUD is also lower, hit by a much larger than expected Australian trade deficit as well as the break in EUR-USD. Weaker global markets are also not helping risk appetites and this may also be affecting AUD positioning. This could have further to run, but the AUD should eventually pullback given the prospect of an August 2 rate hike. Furthermore, the trade deficit is notoriously volatile.

Day Ahead

US – retail sales, import prices, Michigan sentiment and business inventories/sales are all released today and there will need to be some fairly dramatic developments to alter sentiment about Fed policy. Also, while the market has generally warmed to softer data because of the implications for a pause in Fed policy, if it is too weak it will add to nervousness about weaker growth/earnings in the equity market. Steady to slightly softer real sector data is the best outcome for equities. Retail sales and Michigan sentiment should be viewed with this in mind, although both are likely to show some resilience.
Import prices will attract attention given market nervousness about inflation. Import prices were strong last month, with the y/y rate rising to +8.3% from +5.8%, although excluding petroleum products the y/y rate only rose to +1.5% from +0.7%.

Data/event BST Consensus*

CA Manu shipments (May) m/m 13.30 +0.7%
US Retail sales (Jun) m/m 13.30 +0.4%
US Retail sales ex-autos (Jun) m/m 13.30 +0.4%
US Import prices (Jun, nsa) y/y 13.30 +8.3% last
US Imp prices ex-petrol (Jun, nsa) y/y 13.30 +1.5% last
US Michigan sentiment (Jul, prel) 14.45 85.5
US Business inventories (May) m/m 15.00 +0.4%
US Business sales (May) m/m 15.00 +0.6% last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US Federal budget (Jun) $20.5bn $20.5bn
AU Trade balance (May) -A$2.3bn -A$1.1bn
JP BoJ policy outcome 0.25% 0.25%
* Consensus unless stated

©2006, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105