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Tuesday July 18, 2006 - 09:48:06 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Usd extend last week up-trend
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Monday start with a sharp USD rally extending last week up trend. It gains a big figure against the euro and yen. With fear of escalating conflict between Israel and Lebanon, Usd was mostly favorated because of his liquidity even in low market volume. Euro broke medium term support 1.2595 and consolidates around 1.2530. Gbp was not left aside loosing nearly two big figures and went through 1.8310 last week low and extend down slide to 1.8180 to finally close the day around 1.8200. Yesterday news was minor; US industrial production rose by 0.8% (vs 0.4% expected). April figure were revised from -0.1% to +0.1%. Surprise came from Capacity Utilization boosted at 82.4% (June) from 81.8% (April revised). After Monday Japan Holiday, leading economic index came out this morning as expected 77.3%.
Todays Key Issues:
UK June CPI data is due shortly, consensus is set at 0.1% in Jun (vs 0.5) and 2.3% YoY (vs 2.2%). Most awaited Zew Economic Sentiment Survey is due today at 10:00 GMT, 35.0 expected vs prior 37.8 . This afternoon US PPI will be the main focus, June consensus is expected 0.3% (vs 0.2%) and YoY 4.6% (vs 4.5%). Any very strong US figures added to lately unchanged Fedâ€™s rate politic would set USD for new wave on last days uptrend.
The Risk Today:
This morning in Asia EURUSD has traded in 1.2510 â€“ 1.2535 range and USDJPY in 116.85 â€“ 116.20 range consolidating in USD support. In regards of today figures we could expand USD up trend to next Eurusd support 1.2470. Any pullback is unlikely today and may come in the end week. Short term resistance is 1.2560 before Key level 1.2620.
With a new short term resistance 1.8250, we should consider that the market is targeting 1.8090 (early July low). For now today short term resistance is 1.8260 and next medium term resistance is 1.8315.
UsdJpy is pooling back form yesterday high 117.28. Risk and low possibility is not to hold 116.62 short term support and low trend line, this will open the way down to next 115.50 strong support. In the other way it can still turn again over 117 and show de way within the 120 area later this or next week.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2700 S ||1.8530 S ||120.00 T ||1.2680 K |
|1.2620 P ||1.8315 M ||118.60 M ||1.2572 S |
|1.2560 M ||1.8060 M ||117.00 K ||1.2540 M |
|1.2540 ||1.8230 ||116.87 ||1.2474 |
|1.2470 M ||1.8405 M ||116.62 M ||1.2300 M |
|1.2310 K ||1.8350 K ||115.50 S ||1.2260 K |
|1.2103 S ||1.8090 S ||113.85 S ||1.2240 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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