User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday July 18, 2006 - 13:19:43 GMT
Saxo Bank - www.global-view.com/saxo_bank/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Market Update

Published: Jul. 18 2006, 12:19 GMT

Inflationary data from the UK reverses GBP slide. Market watching the US figures.

The market is still overwelmingly focused on the escalation in the Middle East, however some attention is being placed on CB rate outlooks.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• UK CPI (Jun) MoM 0.3% vs 0.1% exp., YoY 2.5% vs. 2.3%% exp.
• UK Core CPI (Jun) YoY 1.2% vs. 1.2% exp.
• UK RPI (Jun) MoM 0.4% vs. 0.1% exp., YoY 3.3% vs. 3.0% exp.
• German ZEW Survey Econ. Sentiment (Jul) 15.1 vs. 35.0 exp.
• German ZEW Current Situation (Jul) 23.3 vs. 14.0
• EC ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment (Jul) 18.1 vs. 35.3

FROM THE MORNING UPDATE
• Canadian New Motor Vehicle Sales (May) MoM -1.0% vs. -1.0% exp.
• Canadian International Securities Transaction (May) higher C5.721 vs. C1.500.
• US Empire Manufacturing (Jul) down 15.6 vs. 20.0.
• US Industrial Production (Jun) up 0.8% vs 0.5% exp.
• US Capacity Utilization (Jun) slightly up 82.4% vs. 82.0 exp.
• UK RICS House Price Balance (Jun) 28% vs. 20% exp.
• Japan Tertiary Industry Index (May) MoM up 0.5% vs. -0.3% exp.
• Japanese Bankruptcies (Jun) YoY -7.9% vs. prior 1.0%.
• China GDP (2Q) massive 11.3% vs. 10.4 exp.
• Russia Central Bank gives Ruble greater flexibily - up 0.3% against usd / eur basket.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
• 12:30 US PPI index (Jun) MoM exp. 0.3%, YoY exp. 4.5%
• 12:30 US PPI Ex Food & Energy (Jun) MoM exp. 0.2%, YoY exp. 1.9%
• 13:00 US Net Foreign Security Purchases (May) exp $56.0b
• 13:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul) prior -10
• 22:45 NZ Visitors Arrivals (Jun) prior -1.3%

GBP
Amazing how much difference a few hours can make in the fx markets. Going into Europe the markets were overridingly bearish on the GBP prospects, trading the GBPUSD down over 1.0% in the last 24hrs. Then the UK released a batch of CPI and RPI figures which passed analysis forecasts, hitting a nine-year high had inflationary pressure written all over them. In addition, YoY CPI held above the 2.0% BoE target for the second straight month. On the rejuvenated rate outlook traders reversed the downward trend, sending the GBPUSD up 0.7%. With only the dated BoE minutes out tomorrow we will be watching for rate supporting comments.

EUR
A weak Euro Zone and German ZEW Survey, which slid to a year low, did nothing to reverse the pervasive EUR bearish view. These figures point an economy were continued confidence is declining regardless of the regions positive growth numbers. Traders are beginning to speculate if the ECB will aggressively purse tighten with slowing growth after Augusts .25% rate hike.

USD
The market will be watching intently figures from the US this afternoon which have strong implications on tomorrows US CPI and the overall FED rate outlook. Should these numbers come in above forecast the market is likely to start pricing in additional hikes, providing additional USD strength. While the markets have shrugged of poor Current Account figures, it might be watching TICS data for overseas interest and deficit support. All US figures should be view with the macro context in mind. The risk aversion trade should provide some downside support should the figures print on the low side, while any figure higher will trigger USD buying.

FROM THE MORNING UPDATE
JPYThe Yen continued to see significant selling pressure on the back of the BoJ’s rate decisions and perceived lack of creditability. With very little reliable information to forecast future monetary policy decision traders have resided themselves to not seeing additional hike until 2007 the earliest. The USDJPY tested critical resistance at 117.00 before moving back slowly. Figures from Japan this morning show a Japanese consumer that is slowing spending and in an economy that consumption accounts for around 60% of GDP and decline could hint to a possible deceleration in the economy. Given the possibility of an economic slowdown and lack of decisiveness in The BOJ we continue to see JPY weakness.

GBP
After a punish day of dropping almost 1.0% against the greenback, the pound gained slightly thanks to stronger then expected RICS data overnight. The figures printed at 28% vs. 20% expected, which might prove a good indication of the direction of the UK economy. In addition an increase in homes which accounts for roughly 60% of English wealth might force the BoE to rethink its current neutral monetary policy. However until we hear some hawkish rhetoric or see inflationary number we will continue to be bearish on the GBP.

EUR
Market sentiment has clearly turned from the EUR dropping over 1.0% against the USD, as trader were attracted by higher interest rates and safe haven status. The current weakness clearly has more to do with war then fundamentals. Today, we should see the seventh consecutive drop in ZEW current economic sentiment which doesn’t bode well for the prospects of the EUR a sentiment has decline despite improving growth.

US
The greenback continued to be supported by risk adverse asset flows. Today the USD might pick up additional support from the prospects of additional rate hikes in August. The release of PPI which is forecasted to grow 0.3% in June and important Core PPI up 0.2% will be a indication to where inflation is moving. We expect higher energy prices to push PPI up. Speculation, War in the middle east, summer driving have all support higher crude prices which have sever consequences on inflation in the consumer and producer sectors. Any support for a rate hike will have positive effects on the USD.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.


Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2530 @ 12:16 GMT)
Weekly Update 16-07-2006: EURUSD made a sharp reversal last week, with both daily and weekly stochastic pointing lower. The pair failed to break 1.2623 61% (from 1.2476-1.2860) Friday which coincides with the bull trend line from late June. But a daily close below this week would give scope for more downside a acceleration for a test of 1.2480 and possibly the double top at 1.2320. For the upside a break of 1.2760 would improve the current technical picture.

Tuesday: EURUSD tested and broke fibo support at 1.2623 in yesterday's European trading session. Look to sell rallies towards 1.2570-85 with stop above 1.2600. Or sell the break of 1.2480 for increased downside acceleration for a test of the old double top at 1.2320.

Resist.
1.2857
1.2709
1.2613
1.2530
1.2466
1.2414
1.2267
Support

Quoted:
18 Jul 06
12:16 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8294 @ 12:16 GMT)
Weekly Update 16-07-2006: GBPUSD continued its sideways consolidation pattern last week, but traded with a bearish bias. The downside was limited to a test of 1.8315 50% (from 1.8088-1.8539) a close below this week would give scope for a test of 1.8260 61%. A break here is needed if the downside is accelerate and would target 1.7935. For the upside a close above 18540 is needed to give the daily picture a bullish bias and would target 1.8750 short term.

Tuesday: GBPUSD saw a massive sell-off yesterday, with the break of 1.8260 fibo support giving scope for increased downside acceleration for a possible test of 1.8100 short term. For today look to sell rallies towards 1.8255 stop above 1.8310.

Resist.
1.8676
1.8462
1.8322
1.8294
1.8109
1.8035
1.7822
Support

Quoted:
18 Jul 06
12:16 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (117.00 @ 12:16 GMT)
Weekly Update 16-07-2006: USDJPY recovered last week to remain in the bull channel from May presently at 113.90 where a break is need for the pair to resume the longer term downtrend. For the upside the pair has still not been able to close above the G7 gap from April at 116.55-70. A break is needed for the upside to accelerate and target the bear trend line from 98 at 119.05.
Monday, Tuesday: USDJPY once again higher trough the Asian session despite Japanese holiday. But we still need to see a break of the 116.55-70 resistance to likely find renewed upside acceleration near term for a 118.00 target.

Resist.
119.32
118.09
117.66
117.00
116.43
115.63
114.40
Support

Quoted:
18 Jul 06
12:16 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105