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Wednesday July 19, 2006 - 09:07:21 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar Remains Strong waiting Bernanke Testimony
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Euro recovered Tuesday from from the previous dayâ€™s lows against the dollar up to 1.2560 after the key ZEW investor sentiment indicator and US PPI numbers. But later in the afternoon Eurusd fell to its lowest in last 2-weeks 1.2480. This level was tested again this morning. The fall in Zew index to 15.1 in July (lowest since may 2005) from 37.8 in June is explain by rising oil price, strength of the euro and the failure of government reform policy to meet expectations. Gbpusd outperformed at mid-day rising to day high at 1.8329 after data showed a surprisingly large rise in UK consumer prices, raising expectations that the Bank of England may raise interest rates this year. Sterling went back to 1.8240 later in the evening and made a low this morning at 1.8236. US Data showed a tick up in Producer prices in June, confirming the sentiment that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates to combat inflation. US PPI inflation set at 4.9% June yoy (previous 4.5%). The USDCHF also rose to 1.2557, its highest in almost three months. It began this week at 1.2344 to close yesterday at 1.2525.
Todays Key Issues:
We now focus on the release of US Consumer Price Index;CPI (MoM) June consensus is 0.2% (vs previous 0.4%) and CPI (YoY) June consensus is 4.3% (vs previous 4.2%). June US Housing Starts and Building Permits are also due today; respectively expected 1900k (vs 1957k) and 1925K (vs 1946K). In addition Bernanke (Fed chaiman) will certainly stick closely to the tone of the statement of the Fedâ€™s last meeting, as the central bank is expecting a slowing of economic growth to help moderate inflationary pressures.
The Risk Today:
With Bernankeâ€™s testimony the dollar should remain supported. His speach would be key sign if higher US interest rates will keep supporting the dollar in the near term. The Intraday Eurusd resistance is 1.2560 and support 1.2480. Thereafter Euro had strong support at 1.2350. In the other hand Usd can show some weakness and pull back to 1.2700 in the week and maybe 1.3000 in the following weeks.
GBPUSD remains weak following the sharp sell-off earlier this week. Brake down of 1.8180 levels will open the near-term downside towards 1.8090 (June low). Intraday resistance is set at 1.8330. USDJPY yesterday move through 117.10 resistance drive the way for a climb towards 117.79 and 118.90 (Apr high). Strong support remains at 116.62. There is very little possibility to come back today. Trend line support could be touched at 117.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2700 S ||1.8530 S ||120.00 T ||1.2740 T |
|1.2620 P ||1.8405 K ||118.60 M ||1.2680 K |
|1.2560 M ||1.8330 M ||117.75 P ||1.2772 S |
|1.2494 ||1.8273 ||117.50 ||1.2536 |
|1.2470 M ||1.8180 P ||116.62 M ||1.2300 M |
|1.2310 K ||1.8176 M ||115.50 S ||1.2260 K |
|1.2103 S ||1.8090 S ||113.85 S ||1.2240 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
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Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
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Mon 25 Dec
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
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