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Wednesday May 5, 2004 - 09:55:45 GMT -

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Euro/Dollar broke downtrend from mid-February

Daily Technical Report 05-05-2004

EUR/USD broke downtrend from mid-February
USD/JPY fell below 200-day MA

Technical Outlook

The streak of lower highs finally ended in EUR/USD as bulls pulled a clean breakout above the downtrend from mid-February. Stochastic is overbought and we are very close to a convergence of the upper Bollinger and 50-day SMA. A pullback is inevitable but as long as bulls can defend 1.1920 low of past three sessions, they will be able to mount a rally to 1.2220 high of 04/08. It is still early to declare the end of correction but we now have the type of formation that when properly supported, can become a long-term bottom. A sharp pullback on USD/JPY from overbought level as the pair fell below 200-day MA and psychological level of 110. Primary trend remains positive but bulls must keep the streak of higher lows alive, which means they must defend 108.30, low of 04/26. Until we get a close above high 111.10 high of 04/29, traders will continue to look for opportunities to sell into the April rally as it is weaker compared to the one in February. Double bottom on GBP/USD is complete although the second bottom is lower than the first, making it a weaker formation. Bulls can keep the momentum going by closing above 1.8000, a major psychological level as well as the 100-day EMA. They will also need to defend 1.7700, low of the breakout candle on 05/04. Some pullback maybe needed to digest the 300 pips rally before the pair can find the next leg up, but the bullish crossover on MACD is encouraging for buyers. We saw heavy selling in USD/CHF as bears snapped the uptrend line drawn from mid-February. Technicals are oversold and we are very close to the lower Bollinger, so a bounce is likely. Bulls need to defend 1.2710, low of 04/08 but bargain hunters will likely cash out on any rally to the 200-day EMA at 1.3000.

Comment from 04/12
Between 03/11 and 03/17 EUR/CHF made lows between 5626 & 5608. Each day a 150pt rally occurred from the lows. On 03/25, the cross had a low at 5458 (slightly below our 5470/5520 area) before a rally to the 5691 High, 233pts higher. The pair moved down once again from the highs to reach a low at 5485. Today, the outlook is still LT bullish since the cross sits at key S. Bulls will step in at 5400/40 in order to exploit MT Trend S and the lower BB. A breakout there would turn the area into R and open the door to 5300. If the downside breakout scenario materializes, 5340/80 will be perfect for bulls to catch a typical breakout/retracement pattern. Bears will have a couple of entries too: the obvious 5720/50 thanks to the 50 SMA and 5900 level thanks to MT Trend R and Swing High.

On 04/15 EUR/CHF had a low at 5441 (slightly above our 5400/40 zone) before a rally to the 04/23 High at 5617, 176pts higher. A similar scenario played out a couple of days ago with a low at 5414 on 04/29 and a high at 5557, 143pts higher yesterday. The outlook is still bullish as long as the 5400 level holds. However a nasty series of lower Highs (triangle) on the 5400 level gives good weight to the bears' case. Many breakout players will start to add in the Swiss below 5400. Bulls who are not already long will probably wait and see, but the aggressive fakeout/reversal crowd will probably take a shot at 5350/90 in order to exploit the 38.2% Fibo from the 03 - 04 bull wave. A sustained breakout below 5350 would then open the door to 5200 and the 50% Fibo from the 03 - 04 bull wave. Bears will also consider 5600/5620 (typical range/add on bounce play) thanks to the 50 SMA and High BB. Finally, 5700/30 will be to watch for the bears thanks to the 23.6% Fibo from the Jun - Mar bull wave.


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