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Friday July 21, 2006 - 05:57:21 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar extends losses after FOMC
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The dollar extended losses on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserves latest policy meeting showed â€śsignificant uncertaintyâ€ť on the path of interest rates. The report helped reinforce a view that the Fed may end its run of 17 straight interest rate rises at next meeting in August. The Philadelphia Federal business index fell to 6.0 this month from 13.1 in June below 12.0 expectation. This survey suggest showed growth in factory activity in the US Mid-Atlantic slowing by more then expected in July; and back the Fedâ€™s view that economic growth is set to slow. The Euro did not progress more against Usd as European Central Bank comment that inflation risks were worsening in the euro zone. Eurusd extend gain from 1.2595 to high 1.2655 but couldnâ€™t leave 1.2620 pivot lest and test 1.2700 resistance. Gbpusd had early yesterday a bullish tone and went up from 1.8425 to 1.8490 with intraday high 1.8520 just under strong resistance 1.8530. Usdjpy mostly traded under 117.00 trading in a range of 116.56 to 117.13, minor support was 116.62. Gold saw some profit taking from Monday high 675 and yesterday rebound 645 to finish its way in well supported area 620.
Todays Key Issues:
All important figures came in the week and no major are due this Friday. GB GDP is expected 0.7% MoM unchanged from previous month and 2.5% YoY (vs 2.3%). Early afternoon, Canadian CPI from previous 0.5%.
The Risk Today:
Dollar is unlikely to rise again on this week highest and may extend losses against European currencies. This week lows were; Eurusd 1.2449 and Gbpusd 1.8177. UsdJpy made top at 117.88. With little chance to happen today, expecting market to brake up Eurusd 1.2700 resistance. As well, Gbpusd 1.8530 resistant should blow out and let us go up to 1.8650. Usdchf has been loosing strength and will return on 1.2370 and maybe lower at 1.2300 next support.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2850 T ||1.8650 S ||120.00 T ||1.2740 T |
|1.2700 S ||1.8530 S ||118.60 M ||1.2680 K |
|--- ||------- M ||117.75 P ||1.2525 M |
|1.2650 ||1.8492 ||116.83 ||1.2424 |
|1.2470 M ||1.8300 S ||116.62 M ||1.2300 M |
|1.2310 K ||1.8176 M ||115.50 S ||1.2260 K |
|1.2103 S ||1.8090 S ||113.85 S ||1.2240 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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