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Monday July 24, 2006 - 06:12:29 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Dollar closes week lower speculating Fed rates pause
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The dollar weakened across the board on Friday, especially against Jpy, as speculation grew that the Fed may paused its rate-raising run after 17 straight rises. After hitting three months highs against the Eur and the Jpy, the dollar slid last week after Mr. Bernanke Fed Chairman said inflation would likely ease in coming quarters as economic growth slows. His comments make Forex market players believe that Fed will not hike rates at its next policy meeting on the 8th of August. The Yen rallied across the board and extended its gains late Friday after China announced it was raising its bank reserve requirements by 0.5% to call its racing economy. Jpy is the Yuan currency proxy investors like buy to play Yuan strength. Also this morning, Boj deputy governor Muto said that further interest rate rises (JPY) will be gradual and it was desirable to reduce volatility of long-term yields by reducing uncertainty over monetary policy. Last week Eurusd traded down to 1.2449 and recovers up to 1.2708. Usdjpy went up 117.89 and returned end week 115.83 lowest.
Todays Key Issues:
Light economics data: ECT Euro-zone May Industrial New Orders is expected -0.1% (MoM) vs previous -0.2% and 8.9% vs 4.4% (YoY). Canadian May Retail Sales expected 0.2% vs 1.7%.
The Risk Today:
Weighting on Dollar is persistent rumors of CNY (Chinese Renminbi Yuan) revaluation, as today is one year anniversary since last revaluation. Eurusd 1.2700 resistance can be retest but should hold today. Support is holding 1.2620 level and next 1.2560 support remains strong. Gbpusd is holding 1.8540 minor support and may have cross lower trend line. But Gbpusd need to test up 1.8650 and may thereafter pull back on profit taking. Usdchf went down 1.2370 and may lower at 1.2300 next support and lower trend line (3 months). Medium term resistance is now 1.2490. UsdJpy support 115.80 will hold and 117.10 resistance is not yet broken. If broke up, we could easily join last week high 117.88.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2932 T ||1.8870 S ||120.00 T ||1.2740 T |
|1.2850 T ||1.8650 S ||117.88 S ||1.2680 K |
|1.2700 S ||1.8540 P ||117.17 M ||1.2525 M |
|1.2650 ||1.8540 ||116.60 ||1.2415 |
|1.2650 S ||1.8460 S ||115.82 M ||1.2300 M |
|1.2470 M ||1.8300 M ||115.50 S ||1.2260 K |
|1.2310 K ||1.8176 M ||113.85 S ||1.2240 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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