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Monday July 24, 2006 - 12:42:59 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 24-Jul-2006....1206 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------


$-Swiss @ 1.2469/74.....Odd short-squeeze
-----------------------------------------
R: 1.2486 / 1.2505
S: 1.2450 / 1.2436-34 / 1.2405
$-Swiss witnessed a short squeeze to hit a high of 1.2486. Currently the pair is trading near its statistically projected Max High (1.2467) for the day. A rise past 1.2486 hereafter could trigger a further rally towards 1.2505 (30-35% chances currently).

Today’s rise in USD-CHF has been a little odd since the Euro and Cable have not weakened proportionately against the USD. In fact, GBPCHF (2.3109) has broken above a 1-Year high and is a source of Support for the pair

On the downside, the important Supports are now coming in at 1.2450 and then at 1.2436-34. It would be better to stay away from the pair.


Cable @ 1.8524/9....Buy some
----------------------------
R: 1.8563 / 1.8600 / 1.8643
S: 1.8189-81 / 1.8468 / 1.8446
The Cable dipped to a low of 1.8481 during the day, just below the 1.8489 Support mentioned in the morning, and has bounced back. Thus, the Cable seems to be holding its Supports. Now 1.8563 is an important Resistance on the upside and a move above that could rekindle the buying momentum. If so, the pair could target 1.8600 and 1.8643 later on in the day. The latter is the statistically projected Max High for the day.

On the downside if 1.8489-81 is broken again, it could trigger a fall to 1.8468 and then to 1.8446.

Trade:
Buy GBP 15K at current level, SL 1.8470, TP 1.8620. As soon as the market trades 1.8570 hereafter, bring SL up to 1.8490




Aussie @ 0.7523/28.....Looking to buy
-------------------------------------
R: 0.7539 / 0.7558 / 0.7575
S: 0.7505 / 0.7475 / 0.7458
The Aussie dipped to a low of 0.7503 during the day and has bounced back. As such, the Support at 0.7505 mentioned in the morning has held. While it continues to hold hereafter, there can be chances of a rise towards 0.7600 this week. Before that, however, Resistances at 0.7539, 0.7558 and 0.7575 would have to be overcome.

0.7506-02 has become an important Support now and in case of an (unexpected) below it, the Aussie could dip towards 0.7475 or even 0.7460. We would still want to buy on a dip, but would not like to place a buy order. It would be better to see the price action tomorrow (in case of a dip) before buying.

On the other hand, if the Aussie continues to remain above 0.7505 tonight we might look to buy in the US session, with a Stop below 0.7500.




Happy Trading!

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



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