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Tuesday July 25, 2006 - 08:51:06 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Trading inside Mondays ranges
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
On Monday, Cable shed nearly a cent and a half, correcting 38% of its sharp rise late last week. The Euro, unable to pierce through strong resistance at 1.2700, followed with a drop to 1.2605. The outlook for the next few days is to remain range-bound around current levels, with a slight bullish-Euro bias, to retry the 1.2700 level. The ECB will hold their next rate meeting on Thursday 3rd of August. With an outlook that they are bound to hike rates to 3%, the Euro is expected to remain bid this week, target will be the 1.2825 level last seen 2 weeks ago. The FED will hold their next meeting the following week on August 8th. Expectations are for rates to remain on hold at 5.25% for now, in fact after some fairly dovish comments by Bernanke last week, analysts believe that the FED has reached the end of its tightening cycle for now. USDJPY has been kept in a tight range near its 116.85 resistance over the past day. Investors seems reluctant to add YEN as the interest rate outlook is only slightly hawkish at best, the 5% interest rate gap to the USD is expected to remain unchanged throughout August as the BOJ will only rise very slowly. At the same time, calls for a new round of CNY revaluation are getting louder. Since the removal of the peg last year, the Chinese Currency has only gained slightly more than 1.5% at a far too slow of a pace.
Todays Key Issues:
US July Consumer Confidence is due at 22pmGMT, it is believed to drop to 104 from 105.7 last month. US June Existing Home Sales are due at the same time, they are forecast to drop very slightly to 6.58m units from 6.67m the previous month.
The Risk Today:
4-H EURUSD: Bearish trend-line has survived a full week, it lies at 1.2665 this morning. While underneath, a challenge of the medium-term support at 1.2580 can be expected, for now we doubt that this level will be broken on a daily basis and suggest buying Euro. A break of the short-term trend should spur a rise to 1.2700 key resistance, once cleared there is plenty of room for a rise towards 1.30 with strong resistance at 1.2820 on the way up. Risk to the downside upon breaking 1.2585 is for 1.2470 this week.
Daily GBPUSD: The triangle is getting tight, falling resistance at 1.8460, medium-term support at 1.8320. We think the support will hold, breaking the falling resistance can see the pair rise to 1.8530 initially, a break there leaves room for a medium-term rise towards 1.90. Immediate risk is a dip through 1.83 for a double-bottom at 1.8080, closing the week low would signify a break and a return to the base at 1.74 over the coming weeks or months.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2780 S ||1.8660 S ||117.50 S ||1.2550 S |
|1.2700 P ||1.8600 K ||117.10 M ||1.2490 K |
|1.2670 M ||1.8550 M ||116.85 K ||1.2460 M |
|1.2650 ||1.8510 ||116.75 ||1.2450 |
|1.2645 M ||1.8495 M ||116.60 M ||1.2420 M |
|1.2620 K ||1.8460 S ||116.20 M ||1.2360 S |
|1.2560 S ||1.8410 K ||115.70 S ||1.2310 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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