User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday July 25, 2006 - 10:42:29 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Global market sentiment improves – supporting emerging currencies.
• USD weaker on Chinese diversification story, although there is nothing new in this.
• FX majors continue to look fairly range-bound.
• AUD remains favoured over the increasingly vulnerable CAD.
• US consumer confidence and existing home sales feature today – Australian CPI tonight.

Market Outlook

The solid (US-led) recovery in global equity markets has offered support for emerging markets with Middle East uncertainties stabilising a little and the market still inclined to take a more positive view of the US backdrop after Bernanke’s testimony of last week. However, this is unlikely to automatically proceed to a straight-line recovery. There is potential for a resurfacing of such uncertainties at some point over the coming week, depending upon developments in the oil price as well as the US data. Sentiment remains delicately balanced in this regard.

For now it looks like being another day of gains for emerging currencies and this should also translate into a weaker USD on the majors, but sizeable movements are unlikely. EUR-USD needs to get above 1.2725 to trigger some interest – support remains at 1.2590-1.2605. Indeed, against the majors the USD was still looking fairly solid until some comments from China (04.00 GMT) about the need for a speedier diversification in its FX reserves. However, these comments came from the National Bureau of Statistics, which has no responsibility for reserve management. If this was the only reason for the EUR-USD advance (which earlier in Asia was at 1.2605) then one has to be a little sceptical about it, although other developments in relation to risk appetite should be mildly negative for the USD. Overall, the majors do not look exciting at the present time.

More weak data out of Canada yesterday left the CAD looking vulnerable, but the bout of USD weakness late Asia sent USDCAD back below 1.1400. However, a higher USD-CAD still looks the most likely outcome in the short-term, with risk up to 1.1525-50. Note also that other crosses are starting to develop against the CAD, especially AUD-CAD, which yesterday traded well above the May high at 0.8610. It has since pulled back a little but remains around 0.8600 and there is a fair chance of a move up to 0.8740-0.8825 in the short-term. EUR-CAD needs to get through 1.4475 (tested yesterday) to introduce some CAD negativity from that angle.

The AUD remains favoured in general ahead of next week’s likely RBA rate hike and Australian CPI is out tonight (see below for preview). A break above 0.7570 remains favoured on the AUD, which would leave risk up to 0.7650.

The Eurozone current account deficit widened further in May to an adjusted €8.2bn, leaving the 12-mth cumulative balance in a deficit of €47.6bn compared to a €28.8bn surplus at the same time last year. While all of this deficit is accounted for by income and transfers, the vast bulk of the deterioration was a €54bn fall in the goods surplus (related to higher energy and material prices). There was a net inflow of €49bn on portfolio account - €44bn in debt instruments, €5bn in equities. The net inflows in equity were accounted for by net sales of foreign securities by euro area residents (€13bn) that were only partly offset by net sales of euro area equity by non-residents (€8bn) – overall evidence of repatriation and liquidation on both sides. The net inflows in debt instruments were mostly due to net purchases of euro area bonds and notes, as net purchases of euro area securities by non-residents (an unsually large €69bn) by far exceeded net purchases of foreign securities by euro area residents (€25bn).

Day Ahead
US – consumer confidence and existing home sales are the data features. Consumer confidence could slip a little if the recent Michigan estimate is any guide, while the weekly ABC numbers have actually been recovering a little. Existing home sales have been fairly volatile in recent months, although looking at the more stable pending home sales number it seems clear that the overall trend is down. To this extent there is a risk of a weaker number today.

Australia – Q2 CPI is due this evening and it will take a very weak number to offset current arguments in favour of an August 2 RBA rate hike, such is the strength in other data (e.g. labour market and private sector credit). The last set of CPI numbers was a mixed bag. In Q1, headline CPI moved up to +3.0% y/y, while the RBA’s measure of core inflation also edged up to +2.6% from +2.3% in Q4. However, total CPI excluding volatile items was only +2.2%, down from +2.3%, while market (private sector) prices ex-volatile items also fell back to +1.7% from +1.8%.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Chain store sls (w/e Jul 22) w/w 07.45 -0.6% last
US Redbook sls (w/e Jul 22) m/m 08.55 -2.2% last
NZ Business confidence (Jul) 09.00 -32.2 last
US Consumer confidence (Jul) 10.00 104.1
US Existing home sales (Jun) 10.00 6.60m
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jul 23) 17.00 -9 last
NZ Trade balance (Jun) 18.45 -NZ$385m
JP Trade balance (Jun, sa) 19.50 ¥627bn
JP CSPI (Jun) y/y 19.50 -0.1%
AU CPI (Q2) q/q 21.30 +1.0%
AU CPI (Q2) y/y 21.30 +3.4%
AU CPI mkt prices ex-volatile (Q2) y/y 21.30 +2.0%
AU CPI-RBA trimmed-mean (Q2) y/y 21.30 +2.6% last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
DE Import prices (Jun) y/y +5.6% +5.9%
FR Own company ind outlook (Jul) 13 12
FR Business climate indicator (Jul) 109.0 108.0
IT Business confidence (Jul) 96.7 98.8
EU Current account (May) -€8.2bn -€1.3bn
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 16 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105