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Wednesday July 26, 2006 - 05:24:24 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
USD holding better than expected
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The US Dollar performed strongly on Tuesday, GBPUSD continued to correct last weeks steep rise, falling to a low of 1.8390 it has reached the 50% pull-back level. The days movement was ignited by much stronger than expected US Consumer Confidence Index of 106.5 in July, analysts had expected a fall to 104. US Existing Home Sales were down a touch in June but thanks to an upwards revision of the previous month, the current 6.62m units in annual sales are considered to be fairly strong, the risk of a housing slump has so far not materialized this year. EURUSD also fell, breeching strong support at 1.2625 for a rapid fall to 1.2565 while USDCHF climbed to a 1.2545 high. Note that the Dollar stopped gaining before the two currencies reached their â€˜cross-overâ€™ point of 1.2555. The USDJPY traded along with an 80-pip spike to reach a 117.40 high and closing the day high, leaving us with a bullish bias to continue ascending towards 119.30. Pivot level to watch is the 116.85 level, a fall through that has potential for 115.70, medium-term bullish trend-line. BOJ board member Suda said that while interest rates were likely to remain at very low levels for some time and that the timing of future moves depended on economic performances, they had to watch out not to fall behind the curve. Hiking interest rates gradually should be effective in the current environment of uncertainties. Minutes of the June FOMC meeting reveals, that two of the 12 regional Reserve-Banks favored leaving interest rates unchanged, giving previous adjustments more time to sink in. This comes in support of the view that the FED will certainly not hike rates this month and may delay further hikes to the end of the year.
Todays Key Issues:
The German IFO Business Climate Index for July is due at 8amGMT. It is forecast to shed nearly 1 point to 106.00. UK July CBI Industrial Trend Index is due at 10amGMT, it is forecast at -10, up from -12 the previous month.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD: 1.2550/60 must hold today if we want to hold on to a bullish Euro bias this week. The support is seen as very strong and before an attempt to breech it can be made, we should see the pair climb to 1.2605, a strong IFO could help the pair back to the stronger 1.2665 resistance, key-level remains 1.2700. Downside-risk in case of a breech at 1.2550 is to equal last weeks 1.2450 low, a daily close underneath of 1.2550 is bearish.
Daily GBPUSD: With a dip to 1.8400 the pair has retraced last weekâ€™s strong rally and is back at the base. The medium-term trend-line is right here and Cable needs to hold these levels if it wants to pursue its quest to move up towards 1.90 in coming weeks.
Daily USDJPY: Bullish medium-term trend is holding, the new renewed breech to the top is bad news for Dollar bears as the current trend could extend up to 119/120 in coming weeks. In the short-term a dip is possible, but we suggest selling only upon a breech of the 116.80 support, from where it can fall to as low as 115.30, the bullish medium-term trend-line.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2700 K ||1.8600 K ||118.20 S ||1.2750 S |
|1.2665 S ||1.8500 S ||117.70 S ||1.2600 S |
|1.2605 M ||1.8450 M ||117.35 M ||1.2550 K |
|1.2580 ||1.8420 ||117.05 ||1.2520 |
|1.2565 M ||1.8395 M ||116.80 P ||1.2450 M |
|1.2550 K ||1.8350 S ||116.20 M ||1.2380 S |
|1.2450 S ||1.8280 M ||115.30 T ||1.2330 K |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
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08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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