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Wednesday July 26, 2006 - 13:32:09 GMT
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Forex Market Update

Published: Jul. 26 2006, 12:35 GMT

Having absorbed all available data, the market waits for more....
Traders will be watching tonights Beige Book and RBNZ rate decision.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• German IFO Business Climate (Jul) 105.6 vs. 106.0 exp.
• UK CBI July Industrial Trends -11
• Poland holds Base Rate at 4.00%
• US MBA Mortgage Application (Jul) -1.3% vs prior -4.6%
FROM THIS MORNING UPDATE
• US Consumer Confidence July, out at 106.5 vs. 104.0 expected.
• US Existing Home Sales June, out at 6.62M vs. 6.6M expected.
• US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index July, out at 12 vs 5 expected.
• US ABC Consumer Confidence July 24, out at -11 vs. 7 expected.
• NZ Trade Balnce June, out at -214.0m vs. -385.0M expected.
• Japan Trade Balance June, out at 807.9B vs. 833.2B expected.
• AU CPI Q2, otu at 1.6% vs. 1.0% expected.
• AU CPI Market Prices Q2, out at 0.6% in line with expectations.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
• 18:00 US Beige Book
• 21:00 NZ RBNZ Cash Rate 7.25% exp.

USD
This afternoon’s US MBA Mortgage Applications hit the market with an audible yawn. Traders were hoping for any deviation to create some volatility; however this was not the case. We believe the lack of activity will carry over to this evening US Beige Book. Normally this is a second tier release but with so many analysts undecided as to the rate decision in August could make this an event.

NZD
The overwhelming majority of analysts forecast a pause in the RBNZ Official Cash Rate at 7.25% Thursday morning. What will prove interesting are the subsequent comments. The market will be listening for any hint that there will be additional tightening and the RBNZ overall take on the inflationary pressures affecting the Kiwi. Any hint that the RBNZ see inflation tapering off, due to the temporary shock of higher oil, and pause in hike will led to a significant sell-off of the inflated NZDUSD.

JPY
The market is still scratching its head regarding the hawkish comments from the BoJ’s voting member Suda.

EUR
Slightly weaker then expected German IFO just added more concern to the Euro Zones economic outlook and potential for further rate hikes. However the IFO didn’t fall low enough to affect Euro Zone Industrial Confidence Index the ECB likes to reference on rate decisions. With a light calendar ahead we continue to see EUR weakness.
FROM THIS MORNINGS UPDATE

JPY
Well it looks like we are back playing Rate Rhetoric game in Japan. This time Central Bank Board Member Suda said the BoJ is “not behind the curve” and “rates will likely stay low for some time.” This does not’t reflect well on the creditability of the BoJ and the markets continued to sell JPY. Merchands Trade Balance came in slightly lower then expected as import prices in fuel cost and industrial inputs creep up. We still see weakness in the JPY as traders see growth opportunities in other regions and interest rate differential make the JPY the obvious funding choose.

AUD
Australian Consumer Prices blew right by analysts expectations hitting 1.6% QoQ and 4.0% YoY. Much higher then the RBA’s comfort zone of 2-3% inflationary target. This new figure has traders speculating on further rate hikes past next week’s .25bp% tightening to 6.00%. We see continued strength in the AUD and believe it be on the best near term trade.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2588 @ 12:34 GMT)
Weekly Update 23-07-2006: EURUSD broke the June lows last week, but was unable to close below 1.2465 50% retacement (form 1.1950-1.2979) keeping the bull trend line from February intact. Look for a daily close above 1.2705 which would give scope for increased upside acceleration for a retest of the inverse-head-and shoulder target at 1.2980.

Wednesday: EURUSD sold-off heavily yesterday on US data last line of support intra day is 1.2555 61% retacement (from 1.2460-1.2710), a break below to accelerate the downside and target 1.2480-00 short term. For the upside 1.2625 break is needed to improve the short term bearish bias.
Resist.
1.2821
1.2713
1.2645
1.2588
1.2536
1.2496
1.2387
Support

Quoted:
26 Jul 06
12:34 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8411 @ 12:34 GMT)
Weekly Update 23-07-2003: GBPUSD broke key resistance last week at 1.8545 which was the level to look for if upside acceleration was once again to be seen. This gives scope for a 1.8750 and possible 1.8900 target in the upcoming trading week. Intra-week support is now at 1.8400.20.

Wednesday: GBPUSD lower on the stronger dollar move across the board, but fell short of trading through 1.8385 50% retracement, Look to buy on dips as long as the mentioned support remain intact with a tight stop for a test of 1.8480-90.

Resist.
1.8748
1.8593
1.8493
1.8411
1.8338
1.8283
1.8128
Support

Quoted:
26 Jul 06
12:34 GMT


US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (116.85 @ 12:34 GMT)
Weekly Update 23-07-2006: USDJPY made a sharp reversal last week after falling short of testing 118.00 resistance. The pair continues to trade within the longer term bear trend line from 1998 presently at 119.00 and last week’s sell-off gives scope for a 114.65 target this week 38% retracement (from 108.97-117.86) and then to 113.40 support.

Wednesday: USDJPY remain choppy and today we look for a break today of either 117.35 to target 117.90 or a break of 116.80 to target. 116.15.
Resist.
118.82
117.94
117.59
116.85
116.71
116.18
115.31
Support

Quoted:
26 Jul 06
12:34 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

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All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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