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Thursday July 27, 2006 - 09:48:03 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
US Economic growth is softening
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Key support levels in EURUSD and GBPUSD held and it seems that the US Currencyâ€™ strength is fading after save-heaven buyers last week had been responsible for its rise. Was the outbreak of violence in Lebanon the trigger for those Dollar purchases, follow-on buyers have been missing after it becomes clear that there is no quick fix to the problem. On the economic front, German IFO was down slightly more than expected, but analysts pointed out that the business situation remains at very high levels. In further comments the IFO think-tank commented recent ECB rate hikes positively, adding there was room to do more and it was on the back of hawkish Euro sentiments that EURUSD traded bid all day. By the time the FED released its Beige Book, EURUSD was trading at the 1.27 key resistance and the level was breeched as the report pointed to evidence that US economic growth is slowing, re-enforcing the view that US rates are sufficiently high. USDJPY has also lost 1% from yesterday 117.25 high, with ongoing talk that the Chinese are likely to jack up their currency sometimes within the next few weeks, upside potential in USDJPY seems very limited. For now the Dollars medium-term bullish trend is intact, trend-line at 115.30 should be tested this week, a break is very bearish US Dollar.
Todays Key Issues:
US Weekly Jobless Claims at 12.30GMT is due to increase to 313k from last weeks 304k, the 4-week average should stabilize around 315k. June Durable Goods orders due at the same time should fare strongly, they are forecast up 2% after a 0.2% dip in May. Key data will be June New Home Sales at 2pmGMT, they are expected to shed 5% to 1.16m units sold.
The Risk Today:
EURUSD: The 1.2700 key level cleared, we look to push the current ascent to 1.2785 or as high as the 1.2860 July high, in the medium-term we remain firmly bid, expecting to rise to 1.2950 in early August.
1-H GBPUSD: The very steep rise since yesterday has driven the pair to its 1.86 key resistance, an hourly close above is bullish. Short-term trend-line at 1.8580, while in place we look to continue trading higher, next target is 1.8850, minor resistance 1.8660 and 1.8730.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2820 K ||1.8730 S ||117.15 K ||1.2550 K |
|1.2785 S ||1.8660 M ||116.70 S ||1.2440 S |
|1.2740 M ||1.8600 K ||116.40 M ||1.2400 M |
|1.2730 ||1.8600 ||116.05 ||1.2370 |
|1.2715 M ||1.8580 T ||115.95 M ||1.2325 K |
|1.2700 K ||1.8530 K ||115.30 K ||1.2260 S |
|1.2650 S ||1.8480 S ||114.65 S ||1.2205 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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