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Friday July 28, 2006 - 05:54:59 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Intra-day Forex volatility is rising
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar started weak on Thursday, sentiment is turning against the greenback on fears of slowing economic growth, stalling interest rate hikes and the squaring of â€˜crisis-positionsâ€™. EURUSD traded up to a 2-week high of 1.2775, Cable fared better once again achieving a 1.8675 high, highest level since early June and a step towards its medium-term target of 1.90. The Swiss Franc underperformed, unable to convincingly breech its 1-month rising support at 1.2330. In the New York session the tide turned, Jobless Claims fell to 298k, the lowest level in 6 weeks and June Durable Goods Orders rose a higher then expected 3.1%, currencies were sold and the days opening levels where bypassed fairly easily. The Dollar spike continued into the Asia session to reach lows of 1.2675 EURUSD and 1.8545 for the British Pound. The Japanese Yen very much followed the other exchanges, going for a first test of the medium-term Dollars support-line at 115.30 before returning to slightly above 116. Government Spokesman Abe, a known dove, commented the eighth straight rise in CPI, which pushed YoY price increases to just 0.6% as only one piece of information that they were monitoring before the end to deflation could be declared. In view of the recent 25bp BOJ rate hike, we believe any further rate adjustments would be done in late autumn at the earliest.
Todays Key Issues:
Swiss July KOF Leading Indicator is due at 9.30GMT, it stood at 2.5 last month, no forecast available. The US will do the 1st release of the 2nd Quarter GDP data at 12.30GMT. After a strong 5.6% increase in the first quarter, expectations are for a much slower 3%, â€˜eaten awayâ€™ by a price deflator of 3.5%. Employment costs should increase a steady 0.8%. At 13.50GMT the Final July University of Michigan Sentiment Index is forecast to remain unchanged at 83.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2840 K ||1.8770 S ||117.05 K ||1.2525 K |
|1.2780 S ||1.8680 S ||116.70 S ||1.2440 S |
|1.2700 P ||1.8630 M ||116.10 T ||1.2410 M |
|1.2685 ||1.8580 ||115.50 ||1.2390 |
|1.2650 S ||1.8530 T ||115.30 K ||1.2335 K |
|1.2605 T ||1.8480 K ||115.10 S ||1.2260 S |
|1.2530 K ||1.8420 S ||114.65 S ||1.2220 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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