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Friday July 28, 2006 - 05:54:59 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Intra-day Forex volatility is rising
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The Dollar started weak on Thursday, sentiment is turning against the greenback on fears of slowing economic growth, stalling interest rate hikes and the squaring of â€˜crisis-positionsâ€™. EURUSD traded up to a 2-week high of 1.2775, Cable fared better once again achieving a 1.8675 high, highest level since early June and a step towards its medium-term target of 1.90. The Swiss Franc underperformed, unable to convincingly breech its 1-month rising support at 1.2330. In the New York session the tide turned, Jobless Claims fell to 298k, the lowest level in 6 weeks and June Durable Goods Orders rose a higher then expected 3.1%, currencies were sold and the days opening levels where bypassed fairly easily. The Dollar spike continued into the Asia session to reach lows of 1.2675 EURUSD and 1.8545 for the British Pound. The Japanese Yen very much followed the other exchanges, going for a first test of the medium-term Dollars support-line at 115.30 before returning to slightly above 116. Government Spokesman Abe, a known dove, commented the eighth straight rise in CPI, which pushed YoY price increases to just 0.6% as only one piece of information that they were monitoring before the end to deflation could be declared. In view of the recent 25bp BOJ rate hike, we believe any further rate adjustments would be done in late autumn at the earliest.
Todays Key Issues:
Swiss July KOF Leading Indicator is due at 9.30GMT, it stood at 2.5 last month, no forecast available. The US will do the 1st release of the 2nd Quarter GDP data at 12.30GMT. After a strong 5.6% increase in the first quarter, expectations are for a much slower 3%, â€˜eaten awayâ€™ by a price deflator of 3.5%. Employment costs should increase a steady 0.8%. At 13.50GMT the Final July University of Michigan Sentiment Index is forecast to remain unchanged at 83.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2840 K ||1.8770 S ||117.05 K ||1.2525 K |
|1.2780 S ||1.8680 S ||116.70 S ||1.2440 S |
|1.2700 P ||1.8630 M ||116.10 T ||1.2410 M |
|1.2685 ||1.8580 ||115.50 ||1.2390 |
|1.2650 S ||1.8530 T ||115.30 K ||1.2335 K |
|1.2605 T ||1.8480 K ||115.10 S ||1.2260 S |
|1.2530 K ||1.8420 S ||114.65 S ||1.2220 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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