Monday July 31, 2006 - 10:40:23 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
$ Index break?
â€˘ Japanese industrial production rose a stronger-than-expected 1.9 percent in June. (Reuters)
â€˘ Key Reports (WSJ):
10a.m. July Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Consensus: 56.8. Previous: 56.5.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt."
It appears the US economy is in the midst of its much awaited slowdown based on Fridayâ€™s GDP data (2.5% compared to 3.2% expectation). The dollar was drubbed on the news based on the view that â€śyes indeedâ€ť this time it means the Fed is done hiking. (â€śThe futures market has priced in just a 31% chance of an 18th consecutive rate hike -- compared with around a 50% likelihood before the GDP data were released,â€ť according to Barronâ€™s.)
US$ Index Daily:
Price is moving in-line with the perceived fundamentals on the buckâ€¦if the crowd becomes emboldened in here we could see a swift break.
Jack Crooks, Black Swan Capital Black Swan Subscription-based Service
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