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Wednesday August 2, 2006 - 05:46:29 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Trading rate expectations
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
The first day of the new month was a bit of a blood-bath for short-term traders as the US released two sets of hawkish data, but the Dollar still lost valuable ground. Medium-term traders look forward of nearing 1.30 in EURUSD and 1.9000 for Cable, these targets may be met faster than it seems on hawkish hopes for the European rate decisions tomorrow. On Tuesday the Dollar initially withstood selling pressure, Personal Income rose 0.6% in June highlighting that inflation is still rising faster than the FED would like, this was compared to Personal Consumption which only grew by 0.4% nominally (0.2% in real terms) and is showing signs of economical stagnation. Later on the ISM Manufacturing report came out a much stronger 54.7 (up from 53.8) but the spark did not grow into a fire and the US Dollar was dumped, falling to the days lows before the European session ended. The Australian Reserve Bank was the first to lift interest rates in August, hiking the official cash rate to 6%. The move did not come as a surprise the RBC said it is fighting increasing inflation pressure and that economic activity remained strong and labor market conditions tight. The IMF challenges the ECB to be cautious when raising rates further this year. Price risks were well contained despite high energy prices, but recovery of Consumption and the Employment Market were not yet firmly established, forecasting an annualized growth of 2%. Despite this, hawkish comments made by officials in early July make us believe that a ECB rate hike is around the corner.
Todays Key Issues:
Only interesting data today is Euroland June PPI, its believed to increase by a steady 0.3% for a YoY change of 5.8%.
The Risk Today:
4-H EURUSD: The pair held the steeper-rising short-term trend and has reached the upper boundary of the longer-term rising channel. While the 1.2840/60 area may temporarily stop this rise, ultimate target is the 1.30 area last seen in early June and thanks to pending ECB decision this goal could be achieved today. In case of a pull-back, try buying Euro at 1.2780, if the ECB stands put, we risks a return to 1.2660 key.
Daily Cable: Bullish and on its way to 1.90 or higher. After last weeks turn at 1.84 it is bound to reach the May 1.9030 high. Despite the fact that the BOE is unlikely once again to hike interest rates tomorrow.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.8995 K ||115.30 K ||1.2480 T |
|1.2895 M ||1.8850 S ||114.85 M ||1.2310 S |
|1.2865 S ||1.8785 M ||114.65 S ||1.2285 M |
|1.2825 ||1.8770 ||114.35 ||1.2265 |
|1.2815 M ||1.8750 M ||114.20 S ||1.2260 K |
|1.2770 T ||1.8660 P ||113.50 S ||1.2220 S |
|1.2700 S ||1.8560 K ||113.10 M ||1.2150 M |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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