User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday July 21, 2004 - 23:06:47 GMT
Foreign Exchange Analytics -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Taking Stock Post Greenspan

Taking Stock Post Greenspan

I do not know anyone who is enjoying this market. It is the mother of all wood chippers. Views and positions regardless of what side of the market(s), invariably end up in the wood chipper, and usually within a few days of asset markets and exchange rates "breaking out". Markets have a serious dependency on Greenspan and it arguably amplifies volatility. I have images of Pete Townsend windmill strumming his guitar in front of screaming youth some 35 years ago next month in the Catskills...complete adulation there at the Woodstock nation. Well I am older and marginally wiser, and Townsend does it do it for me anymore than Greenspan. Don't get me wrong I still love the Who and admire Greenspan. But I am skeptical that either will lead me to the promised land.

When the Fed hiked rates in late June, the FOMC statement, which according to former Governor Meyer Greenspan always scripts and often does not reflect what is discussed at FOMC meetings, markets were told that the Fed would remove accommodation at a measured pace (inserted in the early May meeting statement in place of patience). And the statement warned that measured pace could become more or less measured depending on the data ahead. If Greenspan is the preacher and the markets are the choir, then is it any wonder that Treasury yields fell in July (and the dollar eventually fell to new multi-month lows) as the June economic releases were uniformly soft (payrolls, retail sales, industrial production and CPI)? If Greenspan established data as the condition for pace of easing, then June stats implied a less than measured pace of tightening.

But Greenspan failed to more explicitly state a key corollary to the data-is-key month is not a trend. And for those who were not as myopic as the masses, few would have been able to withstand the pain of being short bonds, eurodollars and long the buck over the last three weeks until Greenspan could redirect the worshipers in the desired direction as happened Tuesday.

By the way. I have also noticed that Greenspan has turned off his between meeting channeling that markets became accustomed to in recent years. I mean the Berry and Ip channeling of Greenspan thought aimed at keeping asset prices on the desired track.

Perhaps this absence of between-meeting channeling reflects the Chairman's own uncertainty and a desire to see enough data to reach a reasonable conclusion. Regardless, the Treasury market and dollar were clearly far more impressed with the weak June data than Greenspan.

Greenspan in a sentence or two restored confidence in the sustainable economic confidence in consumer spending, the life blood of the US economy. Profits, unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, employment growth and a belief that household balance sheets are healthy (refinanced) will keep the consumer and firm dancing. Keep in mind that Greenspan mainly controls one interest rate directly. Quarter point or even half point moves in Fed Funds in the big scheme of things are pretty insignificant, especially at the start of a lengthy rate cycle. And they come only every 6 weeks. Hence the temptation to target asset can be a weekly exercise with direct public statements and appearances as well as indirect channeling.

Indeed Greenspan was so optimistic on June being little more than a blip, that he implied the Fed would err on the side of restraint...normal posture of a central bank at the start of any tightening cycle. Previously I noted the Fed was engaged in an unusual posturing for the start of a tightening cycle by erring on the side of caution. Greenspan spent far more time with the notion of the Fed underestimating inflation (far fewer references to it as transitory...far more hedging). Sure he also paid lip service to getting inflation wrong on the downside...adopting a less measured pace. But the main focus was getting markets to grasp that despite soft data for June, the upside risks to price stability were now higher than the downside risks, and more so than what was signaled in the June 30 FOMC statement.

Like the Who, Greenspan is still a crowd drawing act, and has a massive fan base. A few sour notes at a Who concert are acceptable. But eventually even the Who will be a tired act.

If Greenspan targets asset prices by manipulating market expectations and markets know Greenspan targets asset prices (its expectations), then it is very rational for markets to zero in on what Greenspan says, eats, breaths, drinks, plays and wears. I would prefer some distance. An inflation target would help and markets would get back to focusing on the data, and less on the man (Greenspan's read on the data). And then too when Greenspan is gone from the scene, markets will know what to do. Believe it or not but most traders and investors in the market today only know Greenspan. Thankfully when one tires of listening to the Who there is always Outkast to drop a beat.

David Gilmore


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 19 Mar 2018
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A A 18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
Thu 22 Mar 2018
AA All Day flash PMIs
AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Mar 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,
Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105