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Wednesday August 2, 2006 - 11:00:20 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD shrugs off US data, which fails to significantly change the risks for next week’s FOMC.
• Natural AUD profit-taking risk countered by robust RBA statement, strong retail sales.
• ADP employment due today.

Market Outlook

Yesterday’s US data releases set market nerves jangling a little, although they do not significantly alter the risk for next week’s Fed meeting, where an unchanged rate view has been gaining traction over the past week. The ISM and pending home sales were both stronger than expected, while the core PCE prices y/y rate (due to back revisions) was also in excess of market expectations. However, these pieces of news should be put into context. The ISM of 54.7 was the third successive outcome below 55.00, the first time this has happened for a year and a sign of growth moderation, while the modest rises in pending home sales over the past couple of months appear after very sharp declines since Q3 last year (see chart). It was also not all bad news on core PCE prices number, with a third successive m/m outcome of +0.2% likely to be more palatable to the Fed.

Overall, the data will be enough to maintain market uncertainty on the issue ahead of next week’s meeting, unless there are unusual developments in the other key releases due between now and next Tuesday i.e. tomorrow’s non-manufacturing ISM and Friday’s employment report. 1.2860 is the next level on EUR-USD, with 1.2785 having given way yesterday. However, some further validation of the unchanged rate view may be required via the aforementioned data for this level to be taken out this week. Support is at 1.2780-1.2800. There is not much on the agenda today (see below).

In Australia, the RBA raised rates by 25bp to 6% (as widely expected) and also made no direct effort to counter expectations about a further hike in the months ahead. The accompanying statement basically acknowledged that most indicators (especially credit) had been strengthening, implying that rates were not restrictive and that “underlying inflation in the period ahead was likely to exceed previous forecasts”. They also noted that because of tighter commercial lending margins, the official cash rate would have to be higher than was previously the case to create the same consumer borrowing rates. Further information will be provided in Friday’s quarterly statement on monetary policy. The market has been getting itself long of AUD ahead of this announcement, but the natural inclination to ‘sell on the fact’ may be countered by the robustness of the statement. There was also a strong 1% m/m outcome on retail sales (also released this morning). A move above 0.7680-0.7700 is required to generate confidence about the current move being extended. Support is at 0.7600.

Day Ahead
US – the ADP estimate of private sector employment is due today and last month this generated some excitement as it suggested an estimate for actual private sector payrolls of +368k. In the event, that number was way off the mark (private sector payrolls were only +90k) and as a consequence the market impact from this report will be much reduced on this occasion. Some credibility rebuilding is needed on this report before the market pays lip service to it again.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

US ADP employment (Jul) 08.15 +368k last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jul 30) -10 -11 last
AU RBA rate announcement 6.0% 6.0%
JP Monetary base (Jul) y/y -17.8% -18.0%
AU Retail trade (Jun) m/m +1.0% +0.5%
CH PMI manu (Jul) 65.1 63.7
EU PPI (Jun) y/y +5.8% +5.7%
Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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