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Wednesday August 2, 2006 - 13:11:41 GMT
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Forex Market Update

Published: Aug. 02 2006, 11:53 GMT

Asia and Europe Sessions Quiet.

The Asian market remained quiet and showed lack of follow through, but the dollar remained weak.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• UK CIPS/ NTC July PMI Construction rose to 53.2
• Euro-Zone PPI (Jul) MoM 0.2% vs. 0.2% exp., YoY 5.8% vs. 5.7%
• South Africa Retail Sales Constant (May) 10.6% vs. 9.7% prior
• BRC July Shop Price Index -0.7% from previous month
• US MBA Mortgage Application (Jul) -1.2% vs. -1.3% exp

FROM THE MORNING
• US PCE Core (Jun) YoY 2.4% vs. 2.3% exp.
• US Construction Spending (Jun) MoM 0.3% vs. 0.1% exp.
• US ISM Manufactoring (Jul) 54.7 vs. 53.5% exp.
• US Pending Homes Sales (Jun) MoM 0.4% vs. -0.5% exp.
• US ABC Consumer Confidence (Jul 31) -10 vs- -11 exp.
• US Total Vehicle Sales (Jul) 17.2M vs. 16.7M exp.
• US Domestic Vehicles (Jul) 13.2M vs. 13.0M exp.
• UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Jul) 94 vs. 94 exp.
• AU RBA Cash Target increased .25% to 6.00%.
• JN Monetary Base (Jul) YoY 17.8% vs. 18.0 exp.
• AU Retail Sales (Jun) 1.0% vs. 0.5% exp.
• Paulson in first public speech as Treasury Sec says US need a “Strong Dollar”.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
12:30 US ADP Employment survey (Jul) 368K prior (number was way off NFP last month)

EuroZone PPI did nothing to influence the market as traders have been satisfied sitting this session out. The majors have traded in a tight range in anticipation of tomorrows Central Bank rate decision.

AUD
Australia show the only bit of life in this slow summer session. The RBA hiked .25% as expected to 6.00%. With no comments indicating the RBAs rate bias (traders will have to wait until the MPS Friday for remarks), speculators were quick to jump on the higher then expected retail sales as a sign, sending the AUD higher. With inflationary pressure from a tight labor market and higher fuel costs combined with growth powered by global demand for commodities, we should see rates pushed higher. We expect ot see Fridays MPS indicated a upwards rate bias.
FROM THE MORNING

USD
The PCE core (MoM) remained at 0.2%, but both ISM manufacturing and Price Paid came in at higher then expected, putting additional pressure for the Fed to hike on August 8th. But the dollar was later sold across the board as rumors of funds and longer term accounts adding to their long EURUSD positions. We believe the reason for this is speculation of the Fed putting a hault on the present rate cycle which should send EURUSD rather quickly above the 1.3000 level.

JPY
BoJ's Mizuno says yields will rise if the market shares the BoJ's view; says the BoJ should watch capex data closely. Here we think the BoJ is worried that interest rates are too low and will contribute to excessive investment (even before CPI inflation turns more positive). This suggest that the BOJ outlook consist of more then just looking at the CPI. technically we still need to see a break of 113.35-45 wave support to confirm a medium term bearish view.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Euro/US Dollar
EURUSD (1.2796 @ 11:51 GMT)
Weekly Update: EURUSD broke the June lows last week, but was unable to close below 1.2465 50% retracement (form 1.1950-1.2979) keeping the bull trend line from February intact. Look for a daily close above 1.2705 which would give scope for increased upside acceleration for a retest of the inverse-head-and shoulder target at 1.2980.

Wednesday: Despite solid US data the dollar traded lower. EURUSD broke the key 1.2770-80 resistance level. Expect a range bound day with lack of data. by the dips towards 1.2770 for a 1.2850 short term target.

Resist.
1.3012
1.2902
1.2864
1.2796
1.2754
1.2682
1.2572
Support

Quoted: 02 Aug 06 11:51 GMT


British Pound/US Dollar
GBPUSD (1.8758 @ 11:51 GMT)
Weekly Update: GBPUSD broke key resistance last week at 1.8545 which was the level to look for if upside acceleration was once again to be seen. This gives scope for a 1.8750 and possible 1.8900 target in the upcoming trading week. Intra-week support is now at 1.8400.20.

Wednesday: GBPUSD higher on the weaker USD. The BoE rate decision today. The surprise is if they decide to hike, but is expected to remain at 4.50%. Buy dips towards 1.8710-25 targeting new highs this week.

Resist.
1.8996
1.8857
1.8809
1.8758
1.8670
1.8579
1.8440
Support

Quoted:02 Aug 0611:51 GMT

US Dollar/Japanese Yen
USDJPY (114.68 @ 11:50 GMT)
Weekly Update: USDJPY made a sharp reversal last week after falling short of testing 118.00 resistance. The pair continues to trade within the longer term bear trend line from 1998 presently at 119.00 and last week’s sell-off gives scope for a 114.65 target this week 38% retracement (from 108.97-117.86) and then to 113.40 support.
Wednesday: USDJPY traded choppy before and after US data, but was unable to keep gains made through the late European session. Sell the pair on rallies towards intra-week fibo resistance at 114.65-80 for a test of 114.00 short term.

Resist.
116.63
115.72
115.14
114.68
114.23
113.90
112.99
Support
Quoted: 02 Aug 06 11:50 GMT

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank

 

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