Wednesday August 2, 2006 - 14:30:45 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
GVI Monthly Forex Poll Results
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar against the euro remained negative. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EURUSD was 1.2913 from 1.2900 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (July 31 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2770.
The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) turned more positive the EUR/USD to 58 from 55 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast turned lower to 112.18 from 112.84 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 114.65. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index was weaker. It was 29 after 39.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to close at $71.42 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $73.77 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked where they felt the Fed Funds target rate would be relative to its current level (5.25%); the same, higher or lower. 58% said the same, 39% said higher. while 3% said lower.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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