Wednesday August 2, 2006 - 14:39:16 GMT
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GVI Monthly Forex Poll Analyis Courtesy Cumino
EUR USD 3 months: First day close 1.2772 (1.2806), av. responses 1.2913 (1.29), Adjusted boundaries 1.24-1.32 (1.24-1.32).
GVI (58%) 55%
COMPONENTS 7% 70% 23% (13% 65% 22%). DRY INDEX: 73% (73%).
6mstdev: 6% (8%). DRY index is high, unchanged from previous
EUR GVI INDEX is bullish, in relative and absolute terms, but not too much as it could seem at a first glance. Indeed you have 70% neutrals compared to the long-term average 50%.
From last Survey backdrop: USD and CAD rates expectations diminished. Risk measures are lower after a small peak at the middle of the month. USD synthetic RR1m weighted as well as USD margin positions are similar, painting USD shorts but not extremely.
USD JPY 3 months: First day close 114.63 (114.80), av. responses 112.18 (112.84), Adjusted boundaries 111-119 (111-119).
GVI: 27% (37%)
COMPONENTS: 49% 47% 4% (33% 61% 6%) DRY INDEX: 31% (24%).
6mstdev: 7% (6%).
Bearish USD in absolute and relative terms, bearish medium and short term. DRY INDEX low.
Neutrals are now less than strong USD bears.
Judging by Survey those who are short USD-JPY, as I am temporarily, should begin to be a little preoccupied and allow only little time for their objectives. A break of 114 technically is good, but with this sentiment the fall may be less deep or less long-lived than thought, and the possible levels reached in the case could be very good for a long USD-JPY medium term position IMHO.
OIL 3 months: First day close 74.40 (73.93), av. responses 72.05 (73.98), Adjusted boundaries 67-81 (67-81).
GVI: 46% (44%)
COMPONENTS:14% 80% 6% (14% 84% 2%). DRYINDEX:38%( 65%)
6mstdev: 3% (3%). Roughly unchanged.
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