Thursday August 3, 2006 - 07:29:25 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Daily Technicals: It can trade to either side
by Marc Spaelti
EURUSD: Trading dramatically stopped as the bullish Euro move ground to a halt and the short-term bullish trend was broken at the end of the day at 1.2790 and traders try to determine the risk for todays ECB rate announcement. Overnight the pair fell to 1.2745, initial support is at 1.2740, strong 1.2700, key support and medium-term trend-line at 1.2675 must hold to maintain the bullish view towards 1.30. Short-term bearish resistance at 1.2785 this morning will fall to 1.2750 by the end of the day, a rise through that should carry the pair back up to the 1.2825 level, a daily close above that is bullish.
GBPUSD: Unlike the euro, Cable only shed a few pips, solidly holding above 1.8735. This is initial support, a breech three risks a short-term dip to 1.8660, underlying trend-line at 1.8600 is key. For now we keep a bullish outlook in the short-term, looking to overcome 1.8785 to advance to 1.8950/1.9000 key resistance area, minor resistance at 1.8850 on the way higher.
USDJPY: The pair maintained its levels as the general Dollar-selling ceased on Wednesday. 114.20 double-bottom has held and the 1-week bearish trend was broken. Currently neutral there is initial resistance 114.95, bypassing that allows for a rise to 115.30 strong resistance. To the downside strong support 114.45, a break there will lead to a push lower, 113.50 is still the next strong support.
USDCHF: It has retraced nearly 100 pips from the 1.2260 key support overnight. Currently at 1.2335 we wait for interest rate announcements that should trigger the next move. Strong initial resistance 1.2365, while underneath we prefer a re-try of 1.2260, maintaining our bearish view to reach 1.20 quickly. A rise through 1.2365 can spark additional short-term buys to drive the pair to 1.2420 or 1.2470, the medium-term bearish resistance.
@12:00GMT UK BOE rate announcement
@12:30GMT US Weekly Jobless Claims
@12:45GMT ECB Rate announcement
@14:00GMT US Durable Goods, Factory Orders June
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