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Thursday August 3, 2006 - 08:44:57 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Who will hike rates today?
By Marc Spaelti - ACM Senior Trader
Yesterdays News and Events:
Foreign exchange trading interests significantly dropped on Wednesday, 1-day before the ECB and BOE rate decisions are due. While the underlying view of a lower Dollar in one months time does not seem to have changed, traders see more risk to the Currencies downside in the near-term, a possible ECB rate hike has been accounted for in the price action over the past few days. With this the Dollar selling ceased and EURUSD returned to 1.2750 overnight. Looking at Cable, we notice that its pullback was barely 50 pips, small for this volatile pair and an expression that a possible BOE rate hike today would come as a surprise and could drive the pair to higher levels today.
Todays Key Issues:
The BOE rate decision is due at 12.00 GMT. Expectations are for the MPC to leave rates unchanged once again, at the same time the market is expecting form them to slowly consider a rate hike sometimes this year. Hence risk of an early rise today cannot be ruled out, such a move should boost GBPUSD. ECB rate announcement is due at 12.45 GMT. Hawkish remarks made a month ago have tilted odds in favor of a rate hike. We believe such a move is discounted into the EURUSD prices, hence risk is to see a sell-off after the fact. US weekly Jobless Claims at 12.30 are expected to rise to 310k, keeping the 4-week average above 310k. US June Durable Goods Orders and Factory Orders are due at 16.00GMT. Durable Goods were reported a very strong 3.1% last week, today this data will be revised, expectations are for a much lower 1.5% increase instead. Factory Orders should gain 1.8% after sheeding 0.2% in May.
The Risk Today:
4-H EURUSD: The steeper short-term trend broken at 1.28 last night, a minor falling resistance has developed, it currently lies at 1.2785. While underneath the pair can correct down to the medium-term trend-line at 1.2670, strong support at 1.2700 on the way lower. A rise through 1.2785 is bullish for a retry of the 1.2840/60 area, target is still to eventually rise to 1.3000.
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.2950 K ||1.8950 K ||115.60 S ||1.2465 T |
|1.2825 S ||1.8850 M ||115.35 K ||1.2420 S |
|1.2785 M ||1.8785 M ||114.95 S ||1.2365 M |
|1.2765 ||1.8750 ||114.75 ||1.2335 |
|1.2740 M ||1.8735 S ||114.45 M ||1.2310 M |
|1.2700 S ||1.8660 S ||114.20 P ||1.2260 K |
|1.2675 K ||1.8600 K ||113.50 M ||1.2220 M |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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