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Friday August 4, 2006 - 05:57:43 GMT
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Sideways until NFP, and then breakout

Daily Currency report for Friday August 4 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Jul 56.0 56.0 56.5
Aug 01 00:00 Auto Sales Jul 5.5M 5.5M 5.3M
Aug 01 00:00 Truck Sales Jul 7.7M 7.5M 7.2M
Aug 01 08:30 Personal Income Jun 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Aug 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Aug 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jun 0.2% 0.3% -0.4%
Aug 01 10:00 ISM Index Jul 54.0 53.5 53.8
Aug 02 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/28 NA NA NA
Aug 03 08:30 Initial Claims 07/29 310K NA 298K
Aug 03 10:00 Factory Orders Jun 1.6% 1.1% 0.7%
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Services Jul 58.0 56.5 57.0
Aug 04 08:30 Average Workweek Jul 33.9 33.9 33.9
Aug 04 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Aug 04 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 135K 145K 121K
Aug 04 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: There really is very little to add to this week's movement. A brief rally yesterday saw the euro touch the top of the 1.2750 - 1.2850 range, but without any follow-through higher. With the Non-Farm Payrolls report later today, we should expect more of the same sideways crawl, with subsequent breakout dependant on the jobs data, which we are reluctant to call. So, same old, same old...We must remember that we have been in a largely sideways market since May this year, with the range roughly between 1.2500 and 1.3000. Until we close outside this range on a weekly basis, we shall have to allow for much more work inside this range, making picking levels difficult in choppy thin conditions. Dips should still be limited to 1.2700/1.2650, and until we break above 1.2850, try small shorts near there, re-buying on dips again later. A break above 1.2880 will see the euro back at 1.2950 in very short order, so keep stops disciplined.

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2700 - 1.2650 on signs of basing, stops below 1.2640

Chart: Dips should hold above roughly 1.2700/1.2650, but the market is likely to go sideways most of the day until the NFP


 

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Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



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